17th State of the Presidency Forum

Summary and Closing Remarks By Georgina R. Encanto, Ph.D July 22, 2025

Despite the inclement weather, this morning's zoom meeting on The 17th Year of the State of the Presidency sponsored by the Center for People's Empowerment has been very enlightening. I congratulate all the organizers who swiftly decided to shift to zoom so that we would have the benefit of all the presentations on crucial aspects of our governance and exchanges of insights before the State of the Nation Address ( SONA) on July 28.

Our forum started with the Welcome speech of Dean Diosa Labiste. Dean Labiste said she still considered it an honor to welcome all the participants despite the heavy rains and flooding. She expressed hope that everyone was safe and if they are safe urged them to help those who were affected by the typhoon and Southwest monsoon. She said that disasters are an opportunity to judge whether our government is compassionate and competent or are not.

Dr. Roland Simbulan delivered his Opening Remarks. The CENPEG's emphasis on promoting transparency and accountability in governance. He said that CENPEG is 21 years old this year and this is the 17th year we have had the State of the Presidency forum. He said that CENPEG has published at least 20 books on topics like the crises of our democracy, economic outlook, foreign policy and national security, corruption, and automated elections, media , and it has lobbied for legislation pertaining to these issues. He explained the CENPEG's indicators of good governance in terms of the following: rule of law (Constitution), transparency and accountability, participation in governance processes, efficiency and effectiveness in delivering services, and inclusiveness of all citizens especially the marginalized groups. He urged everyone to have an open mind and consider collaborative and innovative approaches because our problems are complex and challenging. He then declared the forum open.

Here is a summary of the presentations:

Outcome of the 2025 Midterm Elections- Between Resurgence and Realignment by Dr. Maria Ela Atienza of the UP DIliman Department of Political Science.

Dr. Atienza began by providing a context on the 2025 Midterm Elections.

She said that before the pandemic, the technocratic requirements of the 1987 Constitution were adhered to in the Philippines. We had three branches of government and held elections every three years. We were a functioning democracy.

As we moved away from 1987, our democracy started to decline because of a weak party system and personality politics.

The International assessments coincided with our earlier academic assessments here of the state of our democracy. There were two phases in the studies. On the one hand, we were in the upper 25% in electoral politics because our electoral turnout was always high. But on the other hand, we were in the bottom 25% in terms of social group equality, integrity and security. With Duterte's assumption of office, there was growing executive dominance. There was an intensification of democratic backsliding with populism and consolidation of power in the executive branch, weakened opposition and misinformation, networks of influencers and trolls, and peace and order responses.

There was a strong distrust of people in the government and even in the experts of the University.

The pandemic further showed cracks in the system. The response to the pandemic was poor as it was primarily left to the decisions of the Department of Health and the government rather than to the science-based experts of health care. Insitutions like the Judiciary, the local governments and citizens' groups looked for opportunities for citizen participation in addressing the challenges of the pandemic .

The GSO tracker showed a decline in our institutions and processes.

In 2021, there was a decline in direct democracy, according to the GSO Tracker.

In 2022 there were multiple crises because of the return of traditional alliances, celebrities, patronage and disinformation. The GSO attacker said that there were opportunities for nascent opening, The Philippines had a skills in fact checking and alliances among progressive groups.

In 2025, the political Uniteam Party of the Dutertes and Marcoses broke down. The elections were not a good indicator because pro- administration candidates still domInate in the House and local elections.

There was a continuation of weak political parties, importance of personalities, expensive campaigns, dominance of political clans dispite some defeats of prominent ones. There were some shifts and openings for the opposition and progressive seats in the Senate and the House.

Marcos did not do well. He was overconfident and did not exploit the impeachment and the ICC issues in the campaign and there was pragmatic acceptance of the results.

The Duterte supporters exploited the “victim narrative” which proved effective but not for all sectors. The Dutertes are still popular in Mindanao and the Visayas. There were Centrist and Liberal coalitions and more disciplined social media and grassroots campaigns with focus on issues away from the clash of the two families. There were more opportunities for issue- based campaigns at the national and local levels. There is an increased awareness of the need for information available and necessary to understand issues and problems everyday.

Growth in Turbulent Times

by Dr. Victor Abola of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P)

Dr. Abola expounded on some trends in the Philippine economy in recent years.

He pointed out the downward trend in inflation which at 2% to 4% is below the BSP target. From March to June, it was only an average of 1.5%. Another is the Gross National Income (GNI) from Quarter 2, 2022 to Quarter 1,2025 relative to the GDP. The GNI Avg. grew by 9.1% due to the impact of OFW earnings while GDP averaged only 6.1% . Rice inflation, the single largest contributor to inflation, crashed to $ 377.16/ mt, the lowest ever.

The Philippine high inflation episode was worsened by the global rice prices. Oil prices are also expected to remain subdued until 2026 despite the Iran conflict because

there is a drop in the West Texas Crude Oil Spot Price , the OPEC is trying to regain its market share by raising output and the weaker global economy. So the inflation beast has been slain. Inflation jumped from 5.8% in 2022, 6.0;% in 2023- but slowed to 3.2% in 2024. Again lower with 1.6% forecast for FY 2025 so there is fiscal space, the widest in 2019. It was lowest at 32% in 2019 since 1982. But it rose to 60.7% in 2024 and is closer to 60% in 2025. The debt level climbed.

The Trump tariffs for ASEAN countries are 25% for Malaysia, 20% for Vietnam and the Philippines. Domestic demand is key. There is space for growth if we concentrate on creating jobs and producing what we need instead of importing from other countries. We should emphasize on productivity in agriculture and on underemployment levels were down 2022- 2024, but up again in 2025.

Foreign Policy Under Marcos Jr. Administration: Alignments and Contradictions

By Professor Bobby Tuason

Marcos' dual/ balancing foreign policy -- cold politics vis-à-vis hot economies. It maintains economic ties with China, its largest trading partner while turning the Philippines to the US for defense purposes. It glosses over the fact that the world is no longer unilateral (multipolar centers of power than a dominant one). In the 2050 world economy, 7 of the top emerging economies will be from the Global South (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil , Mexico and Turkey). Balancing Strategy vs. Bearhug reality. While claiming to be following a balanced strategy, the reality is that Pres. Marcos has pivoted towards the US as shown by 9 EDCA bases for the US vs China Stands with US in the Ukraine Russia War and the US- Israel War in Iran. The Ph joins US war drills since 2022 to the present. The Philippines is losing opportunities such as infrastructure driven BRI (148 countries including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand) BRICS includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand ( accounts for 40% of the global economy ) Overall Marcos is locked in a US hegemonic, unipolar world and lacks pragmatism in foreign policy.

Human Rights and Governance: Compliance and Crisis

By Cristina Palabay

The Marcoses and Dutertes perpetuated themselves in power to secure their own interests by adopting economic and political policies that trampled on the democratic rights of the people, driving the majority of Filipinos to despair. The Marcos Jr. regime committed violations of human rights and international humanitarian law (IHL) in the country to further consolidate its power against the Dutertes, its biggest rivals. Human rights violations and violations of International Human Law (IHL) hounded the Filipino people as the Marcos Jr. regime was bent on achieving its self - imposed deadline of crushing insurgency by the end of 2024.

Under the Duterte- Marcos National Security Policy (2023- 2028), the “whole of nation” approach copied from the counter-insurgency policy of the US government and previous administration continues. Citizens who dare to assert their rights and oppose the government's anti- people policies are regarded as “ enemies of the state.” In many areas, the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (ELCAC) and its counterparts at the provincial and municipal levels profiled red-tagged and systematically harassed and threatened local activists and other dissenters to pressure them into leaving and denouncing their associations.

Often they were made to line up for “ayuda” and then they found themselves joining “surrender ceremonies” and made to appear to be “armed rebels” returning to the fold of the law. The same strategy was used by the military in many urban areas including Metro Manila, who were trained in psywar, occupied impoverished communities and badgered local leaders to “clear their names” and would form parallel organizations to supplant local progressive organizations.

The Anti- Terrorism Act and the Terrorism Financing Prevention and Suppression Act (FATF) were weaponized and used against mass leaders, people's organizations and NGOs serving the grassroots especially the marginalized. Contrary to his claim that his administration was different from that of Duterte, Marcos Jr. continued to commit human rights violations. There have been 3,706,431 victims of red tagging and this number constitutes the biggest number of human rights violations. Red tagged individuals became vulnerable because many of them became victims of extra- judicial killings, enforced disappearances and illegal arrests and imprisonment on trumped up charges, There are now 745 political prisoners held in various prisons. Of the total number of political prisoners, 103 are elderly and 97 of them are suffering from various ailments. There is an alarming increase of “desaparecidos”. There are 32 “desaparecidos”. The Marcos regime has been notably silent on the abductions with not a single military or police unit admitting having custody of them.

From Transition to Transformation: BARRM Elections and the Quest for Autonomous Governance

by Dr. Nassef M. Adiong

In his paper, Dr. Adiong raised questions about whether the coming BARRM elections would actually bring about more autonomy in governance for that region.

He said that under the BARRM, there are many issues still to be resolved such as the

relationship between national laws and BARRM regional laws and codes, the applicability of the House of Representatives model to the BARRM, the implications of the Supreme Court's removal of Sulu from the BARRM, and Malacanang's intervention which has had the effect of the political dynasties continuing to win elections. For decades, they have dominated but there is minimal economic progress with poor quality of basic services such as electricity, water and internet connectivity, road infrastructure etc. delivered.

A revolutionary alternative would be to abolish the LGU system (from governors, mayors and barangay captains) and changing the 80 member regional representation to “Autonomous Regional Parliament of the Bangsa Assemblies ( ARPBA) “ with 261 elected officers and service-based sectoral representatives of the Bangsa Stand-alone Bangsa Assemblies representing the Bangsa Maranaw Assembly, the Bangsa Maguindanao Assembly, the Bangsa Sug Assembly, the Bangsa Iranun Assembly, the Bang sa Sama Assembly, the Bangsa Yakan Assembly, the Bangsa Bajaw Assembly, the Bangsa Indigenous People's Asseembly and the Bangsa Community Settlers Assembly.

The number of representatives per Bangsa Assembly would depend on the number of registered community welfare clans and societal sectors representation. A community welfare clan is composed of a group of closely-knit and interrelated clans and sub-clans while societal sectors refer to service- oriented representations. Thus proposed structure would allow more proportional representation, shift away from the dominant family dynasty system and give the different group representatives more equitable access to funding.

We have had very illuminating presentations on crucial aspects of governance in our national life and exchanges on possibilities of collaborating on concrete actions to demand greater accountability and transparency from our leaders as well as to undertake more collaborative and sustained courses of action from civil society, academics, media and other people's organizations.

CLOSING REMARKS

Let us all disseminate and share the inspiring ideas and perspectives we shared today with as many groups as we can.