PHILIPPINE POLITICS RACKED BY POLITICAL INFIGHTING; GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS INVOLVING THE U.S. HEIGHTEN

Widening power rifts in Philippine politics as the 2028 elections are in the horizon; corruption deepens; tensions grow in East Asia while Donald Trump attacks Venezuela in a bid to reinstall America’s sphere of influence in the western hemisphere

I. PHILIPPINE POLITICS

Corruption, Accountability, and the Marcos-Duterte Rift

Breakdown of the Marcos Jr.-Sara Duterte dynastic alliance 

The Marcos-Duterte entente has collapsed, one-and-a half years since the unraveling of the UniTeam electoral alliance to back the candidacies of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte in the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential race and their allies in the same year’s general election.

Duterte’s resignation from the Marcos Cabinet in 2024 signaled the end of the duo’s electoral bloc and the imminent clash between two of the country’s most powerful political dynasties. That year, Duterte resigned as education secretary in the Marcos administration thus dealing a fatal blow to the dynastic axis of the two families.

The demise of the powerful tandem could result in intense and bitter competition between these powerful political clans particularly in the 2028 elections.

Yet a third political partnership may emerge that year given the electorate’s disillusionment with the top governing elite.

Marcos Jr.’s father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr., was Philippine president from 1966 to 1986 - the year a civilian uprising led to his ouster after a 20-year rule cum dictatorship. Rodrigo Roa Duterte, father of Sara, ascended to power in 2016-2022. He is now detained at the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Scheveningen prison in The Hague with the appeals chamber denying his plea for an interim release last November. He is facing trial for crimes against humanity on account of his drugs war that killed thousands of suspected drug takers.

In 2022, Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte ran on a platform of unity, even calling their ticket “UniTeam”. With their dynasty’s solid bases in northern Luzon (Marcos) and Mindanao (Duterte), the duo secured a majority vote unseen since 1986. This jaw-dropping electoral mandate was secured by the two presidential progenies whose fathers were strong-arm leaders known for their populist-authoritarian politics.

Fragile alliance

The falling out between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte has been triggered by assumed policy differences albeit out of political convenience with Sara saying in mid-2024 that their tandem was created only to win the 2022 elections. The short-lived, opportunistic alliance tilted toward power acquisition rather than on a power-sharing partnership.

Marcos Jr.’s presidential bid rode on a campaign crest of continuing the policies of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte. There were however actual policy switches and divergences from previous political positions. This included a more pro-US foreign policy as against his predecessor’s China-friendly tack, the transparency initiative in the South China Sea; restarting peace talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) which is now under a new leadership following the death of its founding chairman, Jose Ma. Sison, in The Netherlands; and Marcos Jr.’s criticism - obliquely pointing to Sara - of Duterte’s bloody war on drugs.

In effect, the Dutertes’ political leverage in the Marcos Jr. administration has decelerated. Despite the administration’s majority base in the two houses of Congress, Sara Duterte’s proposal for a PhP650mln confidential and discretionary funds in the 2024 budget to be split between the office of the vice president and the education department was controversial and was thumbed down. House Speaker Martin Romualdez, Marcos Jr.’s first cousin, allowed this to happen while allies of the Dutertes like the press secretary were purged from their positions and replaced by Marcos trustees.

Romualdez stepped down as House speaker amid reports of corruption in flood control projects in September 2025. He was replaced by Faustino Dy III who also belongs to another dynasty from Isabela province, northeastern Luzon.

Power-sharing and collision course

The end of the Marcos-Duterte partnership unearths the fact that promiscuous power-sharing in Philippine politics, even between interest-driven political dynasties, is shaky.

Complicating the rift, Rodrigo Duterte accused Marcos Jr. of being drug- dependent in a public gathering in Davao. (As a student in Oxford the young Marcos took cocaine and was photographed driving a Rolls Royce. He took up philosophy, politics, and economics at the elite St. Edmund Hall in 1975-1978 but failed to earn any undergraduate degree.) Duterte also asked the military to depose Marcos Jr. once he tried to grab power like his father.

As observed, the fall of the alliance with Sara Duterte will have adverse political repercussions for Marcos Jr. and his government. The vice-president remains a popular politician in the country although latest trust ratings for both are negative with the incumbent president ranking lower than Sara.

Still, Sara enjoys unwavering support in Mindanao it being the Dutertes’ political turf.

 Two roads diverge

As it stands, while Marcos Jr. has openly expressed in Washington DC his strong defense partnership with US President Donald Trump, Sara has hinted of reinvigorating strong ties with China especially on trade. A China-friendly stance by Sara - if she wins the presidency in 2028 - underscores the dynamics of Philippine foreign policy - with one president friendly to one side, the other a foe to the same party. This is the consistent modality in foreign affairs which is characterized by inconsistencies and instabilities.

Such uncertainty has been a sign on the wall from one president to another indicating a regime facing hurdles as it takes charge of a weak economy and a foreign policy challenged by security issues. A country chained to poverty and is non-industrialized will take thousands of steps to develop an independent foreign policy. The country’s colonial roots keep it trapped under the security umbrella of its neocolonial master. Any transformation will be long and difficult. As a Marxist analyst says, a journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.

As in past narratives, the discord between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte unveils the typical characteristic of Philippine politics as being personality-oriented driven by political convenience and opportunism and not by a system of political parties and ideologies

The end of the Marcos-Duterte partnership unmasks the objective reality that casual power-sharing between family dynasties, is unsustainable in Philippine politics even in the context of a pro-forma democratic election - a vision which is remote in a semi-feudal and semi-colonial society run by dynasties and subservient to an imperialist power. This is compounded by the absence of viable political institutions like political parties. The country’s presidential system also deters real coalition-building so unlike in some liberal European countries.

Systemic corruption

Looking back, corruption and accountability hogged the headlines in the Philippines, amid the vicious infighting between the camps of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte. The corruption-riddled Marcos administration especially its public works and highways department and customs bureau, among others, drains billions if not trillions of losses that end up in the pockets of unscrupulous high- and low-level bureaucrats.

The public issue is discerned, for instance, from thousand-kilometer cracked-roads and unfinished road projects. There have been cases of bridges that collapsed causing accidents to buses and passengers given the country’s 205,000-long kilometers of unreliable road networks. Railway and subway systems are limited and are confined in Metro-Manila and Luzon provinces.

To date, the current DPWH secretary has filed hundreds of cases against national and local officials in the department,

Corruption in the Philippines has historical roots, is systemic, and is embedded in patronage and political culture with political dynasties dominating and appointing or causing the election of national and local officials. Corruption is historically entrenched, culturally reinforced (“debt of gratitude”), institutionally tolerated (“you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours”), and is financially incentivized. ( "Moderate the greed" was notably used by NEDA Director-General Romulo Neri in 2008, instructing whistleblower Jun Lozada during the NBN-ZTE scandal to cut project costs, which Lozada interpreted as an instruction to "moderate their greed". (See CenPEG’s bestseller “Corruptionary”, a glossary of corruption words.)

Thus this crisis continues to unleash thousands of protesters going to the streets throughout the country.

Governance: What people look for

Corruption takes roots in a politics which makes the malady a popular means of amassing wealth and political power. Many politicians are either unaware of or dismiss signs of public disaffection over their blemished governance - coming from their own constituents.

Recent surveys show that Filipinos primarily want the government to address urgent economic concerns and ensure accountability and clean governance. They view economic hardship and corruption as deeply intertwined issues, recognizing that misused public funds lead to higher prices, weaker public services, and fewer job opportunities. 

They want concrete actions to curb inflation, reduce or eliminate corruption. Nearly all Filipinos (97%) believe government corruption is widespread; they demand more jobs and livelihood opportunities; reduce poverty; improve access to basic services; make education and social services accessible.

Overall, Filipinos are looking for leaders who govern with integrity, address immediate material well-being, and provide a clear vision for the nation's future. 

II. NATIONAL ECONOMY

The economic think tank IBON Foundation described the Philippine

Economy in December last year as experiencing slow and “job-destroying” growth that is driven primarily by corruption and benefits only a wealthy elite.

Key takeaways from IBON's analysis in December 2025 include:

Slowed Economic Growth: Economic growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 4.0%, the slowest in 14 years and below the government's target, a trend IBON expects to continue due to a lack of investment in domestic agriculture and industry.

Worsening Jobs Crisis and Poverty: Despite official claims of a stable labor market, the actual situation is unstable, marked by significant job losses (employment fell by 270,000 year-on-year by September 2025) and a rise in part-time and informal work.

Poverty: The number of self-rated poor and hungry families has increased substantially under the current administration due to inadequate wages.

The think tank also criticized the 2026 national budget, arguing it features large allocations for "pork barrel" projects and debt servicing, while essential services like education, health, and agriculture remain underfunded.

Inequality: The benefits of the economy are concentrated among a few. The combined wealth of the top three richest Filipinos surged by 56% from 2022 to 2025, while most families are struggling to meet basic needs.

IBON called for a radical shift away from neoliberal policies, urging the government to implement genuine agrarian reform, pursue national industrialization, increase wages, and introduce a wealth tax on the richest individuals to fund social services.

III. MARCOS FOREIGN POLICY: BALANCED OR PARTISAN?

Most Philippine presidents are subservient to America. To illustrate, Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. maintains close diplomatic and defense ties with the United States as symbolized by a warm handsake with his US counterpart, Donald Trump (2.0) in a bilateral meeting at the White House, July 2025. The gesture revealed Marcos Jr.’s unwavering commitment to defense ties with the US as shown in the increase of Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreements (EDCAs) with US armed personnel camped without charge inside Philippine military headquarters.

The cooperation has been capped by the US armed forces’ use of a Subic Bay port supposedly as an arms manufacturing hub overlooking the South China Sea / West Philippine Sea and as a base for countering China’s sovereign and territorial claims over the waters.

In response, the Chinese government has strongly opposed plans for the US arms manufacturing and ammunition hub in Subic Bay framing it as a dangerous provocation that destabilizes the region and escalates tensions. 

On the other hand, the US vassal Marcos has taken a strong stance against China’s reportedly aggressive actions in the SCS/WPS.

 Philippines-Japan relations

China has had friendly relations with Japan but not until a new prime minister came to the fore. Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, assumed office in October last year - the first woman to hold the position in Japan’s history. Takaichi is a hard-line conservative and militarist to the core, with a political stance rooted in the traditionalist, rightist wing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which represents the country’s financial elite. 

Takaichi’s leadership is anathema to Japan’s constitution which contains an anti-militarism provision in Article 9, often called the "peace clause". This article explicitly renounces war as a sovereign right and prohibits the maintenance of military forces for that purpose. (The first violation was when the government began to build warships and airforce, in the guise of “self-defense.) 

The Philippines, for one, had suffered great loss of life and tremendous physical destruction by the time the second world war was over. Manila was razed to the ground like what Nazi Germany did to Warsaw. But the destruction was wrought not only by the Japanese but also American forces involving air raids and intense ground combat. Some 527,000 Filipinos, both military and civilians, lost their lives from all causes during the Japanese occupation 1942-1945; of these, between 131,000 and 164,000 were killed in 72 war crime events. Scores of women were raped in what is now known as the abuse of “comfort women” or sex slaves.China and Korea met the same fate from the Japanese imperial fascists.

Historical revisionism

The current Philippine government, however, may have completely disregarded the devastation wrought by the Japanese imperial army in the last war. In fact today, Marcos Jr. has reaffirmed high-level defense ties with Japan. In his meeting with Japanese PM Takaichi in October last year on the sidelines of the 47^th Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur, the two sides committed to strengthening defense cooperation, economic ties, and regional stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Moreover, the two leaders agreed on an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), which allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military to share supplies, such as food and fuel. They also reaffirmed the importance of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and continued cooperation on Official Security Assistance (OSA).

The backdrop of this accelerated cooperation is for the Philippines to gain a strategic leverage by using Japan's support to bolster its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and countering China. By introducing Japan as a partner alongside the US-Philippines alliance, Marcos Jr. can diversify his reliance on a single ally and utilize Japan's technology and equipment to quickly address its military capability gaps. But it also pits not only the Philippines and the US but also Japan against China.

Japan’s objective is to expand its military cooperation network into the South China Sea, using the Philippines as a springboard and foothold to curb China. Although China and Japan maintain robust trade relations, both countries clash on security issues involving Taiwan. Takaichi warned that a war by China on Taiwan will be deemed a “survival threatening” crisis that will compel her to retaliate by using military force and mobilizing its defense alliance with the US.Analysts observe that Takaichi’s support for Taiwan is not just helping Taiwan itself but to protect her country’s security interests, deterring China, and strengthening its alliance with the US and other allies.

US is Japan's primary defense ally, forming a cornerstone alliance, but it’s expanding security ties significantly with Australia, India, the Philippines, South Korea, and the UK, forming strategic frameworks like the Quad and new bilateral pacts to counter regional challenges, creating a robust network of partners for joint training, intelligence sharing, and potential collective defense in the Indo-Pacific.

The QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is a strategic forum of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia—focused on promoting a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region although it's often seen as a counterbalance to China's growing influence.   

Geopolitical turmoil 

Overall, the geopolitical turmoil sparked by Takaichi has led to a dangerous shift in the Asia-Pacific security architecture: Taiwan's return to China in 1945 was a key component of the postwar international order, yet today, the question across the Taiwan Straits is being turned by Japan into a dispute between Beijing and Tokyo. This could have significant implications for the  Asia-Pacific landscape. It increases the instability of the region.

Yet another historical perspective is that Japan's right-wing forces have continuously pushed for the "normalization" of the country, overturning the postwar framework, effectively expanding military capabilities, gradually relaxing military restrictions and deviating from the postwar pacifist structure. Under the US-led "Indo-Pacific Strategy," Japan is attempting to play the role of a "frontline" state, hyping up the Taiwan question to reshape its influence in East Asia.

Takaichi’s hardline declarations represent this trend of fascist revival, seeking to justify military expansion for Japan's right-wing forces. The growing influence of Japan's right-wing forces is an extremely dangerous signal not only for China but also for global peace and development. The direction is poised toward fomenting a major war in East Asia with catastrophic impact on adjoining regions.

“Shock and awe” in Venezuela

The socialist-leaning Venezuela was named by US President Trump in his December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) as a western hemisphere target of invasion. The Trump document referenced the Monroe Doctrine and proclaimed its reassertion as official policy. “After years of neglect,” he said, “the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region.” The document annexed a “Trump Corollary” to the original doctrine, which it describes with striking candor as “a common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities.”

(The 1823 Monroe Doctrine was a US policy declaring the Americas off-limits to European colonization and intervention, establishing separate spheres of influence for Europe and the Americas, and warning that new colonization attempts would be seen as hostile acts, in exchange for the US not interfering in European affairs. Essentially, it told European powers to stay out of the Western Hemisphere, while the US promised to stay out of theirs - Africa and the Middle East.) 

The Western Hemisphere includes all of North, Central, and South America, plus Caribbean islands, encompassing around 35 independent countries like the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and several smaller nations, totaling over 40 countries and territories, defined by being west of the Prime Meridian (0° longitude) and east of the 180° meridian, though some definitions focus on the Americas themselves. 

In pursuit of the NSS on the Western Hemisphere, Trump outlined four mechanisms for enforcing hemispheric control: military redeployment, naval expansion. lethal force against cartels, and economic coercion. Mexico faces the sharpest edge — “lethal force” against cartels and implies US military operations on Mexican territory, while migration provisions create leverage for economic coercion. Brazil under President Luiz Lula da Silva attempts to balance Chinese investment against US pressure, but within a government shaped by agribusiness and extractivism. 

The Monroe Doctrine’s return makes it clear that US imperialism in the Americas is not a relic of the past but an active, intensifying project.

Nicolas Maduro’s abduction

With Venezuela long targeted for American invasion and control, Trump justified the Caracas president’s terroristic kidnapping allegedly for engaging in narco-trafficking and bring him and his wife to justice. No evidence was presented. (The kidnapping was executed by the elite Delta Force - the same unit that murdered Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Mohammed Abu Minyar Gaddafi, and many other leaders.)

The fact is the US had aimed to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry. Although the country has the world's largest proven oil reserves, its oil production has been declining in recent years owing to sanctions as well as lack of investment and infrastructure.

Venezuela possesses significant, yet largely undeveloped, resources of rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals, concentrated in the mineral-rich Guayana Shield. While the potential is vast, commercial extraction remains negligible due to political and economic instability, sanctions, and governance issues.

Maduro’s illegal abduction was condemned all over the world by countries like China, Russia, and the Americas as dangerous, criminal and an act of war against a sovereign country and international law. (Strong reservations on the act were expressed by US allies UK and France as massive demonstrations were staged worldwide.)

Trump, described by psycho-analysts as narcissist, has vowed to stay in Venezuela “until a transition takes place” - in short, indefinitely.

Litany of bloody wars

Trump’s abduction of Venezuela’s socialist President Nicolas Maduro is the latest in the post-war timeline where the US initiated a pattern of wars of aggression, coups, regime change, electoral interference, subversion - covert and overt operations in 100 countries including Iran (1953), Guatemala (1954), Chile (1973), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Haiti, Venezuela, Libya, Ukraine, Sudan, Serbia, Cuba, Panama, Indonesia, Dominican Republic, Congo, Brazil, Nicaragua, Honduras, Philippines and Italy and more, often to prevent left-wing governments or protect US interests and perpetuate its global hegemony, especially during the Cold War and thereafter. 

Predictably, as Trump mentioned, the Venezuelan case sets a precedent that will affect Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Cuba as well as Iran and other countries. Their names have been mentioned by the narcissistic and ego-maniac American president, a behavior often mentioned in public discussions by medical experts.

As of late 2025 and projections for 2026, the United States is still considered the single most powerful country in the world, primarily due to its dominant military, massive economy, and extensive global influence. While other nations, particularly China, are rapidly growing in power and influence, the US maintains a significant lead across several key metrics. 

The US has hundreds of military bases globally, with estimates ranging from around 750-800 formal overseas bases in 80+ countries (like Japan, Germany, South Korea and the Philippines) to a larger Department of Defense presence across thousands of sites, with sources pointing to at least 128 major installations in recent reports, depending on how "base" is defined (major hubs vs. smaller outposts). 

So long as US imperialism flaunts its hegemony and supremacy in the world more peoples and countries will meet the same fate as Venezuela. Some countries are in the line-up.  US imperialism’s unilateral and extremist moves are bound to provoke retaliations and a major war. #