POLITICAL FEUDS AT HOME, ECONOMY IN DOLDRUMS

Foreign policy is torn between maritime tensions with China and close defense ties with the US

 APRIL 2026

MONTHLY POLITICAL ANALYSIS

April 2026 marked the deepening of political rifts between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and his former electoral teammate, Vice President Sara Duterte. While political power gravitated toward the current president, such power is not enough to grapple with bitter economic woes as poverty levels deepened. Maritime tensions between the Philippines and China persisted but efforts were exerted to soften the impact. But with the establishment of nine EDCA sites in the Philippines, the Marcos government is compelled to take a balancing strategy by maintaining close defense ties with the US while China remains a major trading partner.

I.   PHILIPPINE POLITICS

The Perfect Storm: April 2026 and the Convergence of Crisis and Accountability

April 2026 will be etched in stone as one of the most volatile months in recent Philippine politics. Domestic politics collided with global geopolitical instability, creating a "perfect storm" that tested the nation's economic resilience, diplomatic standing, and constitutional foundation. From the halls of Congress to the waters of the West Philippine Sea / South China Sea, and extending to the volatile corridors of West Asia, the events of this month signaled a profound shift in the country's foreign trajectory.

West Asia is the westernmost subregion of Asia, encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, Anatolia, and the Caucasus. It connects Asia to Africa and Europe, bridging the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, and Persian Gulf. This strategic, largely arid region is central to the global energy market, containing over 50 percent of the world's oil reserves.

The Philippines does not directly import crude oil from Iran and relies heavily on the Middle East for about 98 percent of its oil, with primary suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The Philippines however is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations caused by the US-Israel war on Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, the centerstage of Philippine politics in April 2026 was fractured by divisive power struggles, corruption scandals, and a worsening energy crisis. As in the past, such institutional issues have weakened governance with adverse impact on the public.Elite politics makes Philippine democracy in norm only without substance.The pivotal political conflict unveiled widening cracks of the 2022 election UniTeam coalition between the camps of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.

The April 2026 political tapestry was woven by impeachment and legal raps against the vice president for allegedly misusing confidential funds (over Php500 million in 2022-2023) and conspiring to assassinate top government officials, including the President.

Accordingly, throughout April, the House justice panel held hearings on the impeachment complaints against the vice president with key sessions set in the same month. Initial hearings were marred by political fallout - intense political maneuvering, including the withdrawal of support by some lawmakers and AI-driven misinformation regarding the stance of the Senate. Duterte loyalists called the affair a “political persecution”.

The CoA Bombshell

The momentum shifted gears on April 20 when the Commission on Audit (CoA) issued a Notice of Disallowance for ₱375 million in 2023 confidential funds. Combined with previous findings, the Vice President was ordered to return nearly ₱448 million. This report provided the "smoking gun" which legislators needed.

The 53–0 Vote

Then on April 29, the House Committee on Justice voted unanimously (53–0) to find probable cause for impeachment. The charges were grave: betrayal of public trust via the misuse of ₱612.5 million in confidential funds and "grave threats" against the President. While the Vice President's allies sought Supreme Court intervention to block the process, the high court’s dismissal of related petitions on April 29 signaled that the constitutional process will proceed unimpeded.This sets the stage for a Senate trial that will undoubtedly define the political landscape heading toward 2028.

Duterte trial

The high-level rift is taking place in the aftermath of former President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s detention at the International Criminal Court (ICC) prison center in Scheveningen, The Hague, Netherlands, since his arrest in Manila on March 11, 2025.

Duterte is being held for his alleged role in crimes against humanity during his administration's anti-drug campaign as Davao City mayor, and as president since 2016 (2011–2019). The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber confirmed three counts of crimes against humanity against him on April 23 this year, officially moving the case to a trial chamber. A conviction will jail Duterte for life.

Duterte, now 81, is the father of Vice President Sara Duterte.

Political opportunism

The fissure of the Marcos-Duterte tandem once more unmasked the opportunistic and short-term coalition forged for electoral purposes only to slide into splits later. Such is the fragility of temporary alliances in Philippine politics – which for more than a century has been dictated by the system of family dynasties.

Dynasties rise and fall but the system survives.

Flood control corruption and oil price shocks

The entire country was also engulfed by flood control corruption scandals. Investigations continued into alleged anomalous flood control projects that involved "ghost projects" and padded contracts across the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). One case involves former House Rep. Zaldy Co who was linked to questionable projects connecting contractors and public works and highways officials. The scandal prompted the President to execute a “bold reset” by appointing Vince Dizon to the DPWH to address the scam.

Meanwhile, the US-Israel against Iran since late February this year has created chokepoints to the world oil supply, i.e., a global energy crisis. The critical oil supply shortage led to the Philippine government’s declaration of a state of calamity in several areas, including Baguio City, Zamboanga City, and Cagayan province.

The shock of oil price increases moved transport groups, including Piston and Manibela, to stage a nationwide transport strike twice in April to protest high fuel prices and lack of government action.

Continuing communist armed revolution

Elsewhere, the Philippine armed forces and the national police intensified operations against the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army (CPP-NPA) guerillas, highlighted by a major encounter in Negros Occidental resulting in 19 fatalities.

As of this month, the New People's Army (NPA) guerrilla forces are operating in Northern Samar with sporadic encounters, including the use of landmines against state security forces. Similar guerilla fronts remain active in Northern Mindanao and parts of the Caraga region, Mindanao which comprises the provinces of Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands - with Butuan City as its regional center.

Guerillas have also been reportedly active in the Bicol Region (specifically Camarines Sur), Southern Tagalog (Quezon province), and parts of Northern Luzon.

The NPA was established by the CPP in March 1969.

Political instability

The high-level political infighting, the impeachment complaint against the vice president and the latter’s reported threat to have the chief executive assassinated dramatize mounting challenges that continue to beleaguer the central government.

The Marcos administration is thus navigating intense political instability, an economic crunch, and high-stakes legal battles that have deeply divided public opinion. To iterate, the core conflict lies in the fracturing of the ruling coalition, resulting in a direct confrontation between the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and the camp of Vice President Sara Duterte. While political supporters of Marcos Jr. push for accountability, Duterte loyalists view the impeachment as political persecution and a "sham" designed to destroy her ahead of the 2028 elections.

Philippines reputation

The Philippines has suffered a decline in its international trust rating regarding corruption, falling to its lowest ranking in over a decade in early 2026. The country's reputation is heavily impacted by the perception of pervasive public-sector corruption, particularly scandals related to infrastructure projects.

The Philippines dropped six places to rank 120th out of 182 countries in the Transparency International 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), in February 2026.

The country also ranks third most corrupt in Southeast Asia, with only Cambodia and Myanmar ranking lower in the region.

Domestic and international observers, including foreign business chambers, have expressed concern that the corruption issues, especially in flood control projects, hinder investment and weaken trust in government institutions.

Public and Institutional Response

Surveys indicate that a significant majority of Filipinos believe corruption is widespread, with high awareness of scandals involving the misuse of public funds year on year.

Despite efforts to digitalize government processes and create anti-corruption laws, the persistent low ranking on the CPI indicates that the Philippines continues to face serious challenges in building international trust, with corruption remaining a major barrier to development.

II. NATIONAL ECONOMY

While political issues buffet the Marcos Jr. administration, economic issues are strenuous.

Inflation surged to 7.2 percent in April 2026, the fastest rate in over three years, driven by rising fuel, food, and housing costs. This followed the Philippine peso breaking ₱61 to US$1, marking an all-time low in late April.

People are experiencing severe "price shock" on daily necessities. A heated debate is brewing over the government's economic management, with critics arguing the administration is too focused on political maneuvering such as impeachment while the economy suffers.

While “ghost projects” have come under probe, other investigations also involve padded contracts, and systemic corruption involving politicians and contractors.

The scandals, which cut across multiple administrations, have triggered widespread public outrage, with protesters demanding accountability and the abolition of "pork barrel" systems.

In the Philippines, the "pork barrel" system - discretionary lump-sum funds allocated to legislators for projects—has undergone various name changes following scandals and declarations of unconstitutionality by the Supreme Court. “Pork barrel” is exemplified by “priority development assistance fund” (PDAF), “countrywide development fund” (CDF), “disbursement acceleration program” (DAP), and “public works fund”.

Meantime, the Philippines' trade deficit with China remains high, with China being the top import source ($29.39 billion in 2023). As of 2025, China held a $38.87 billion surplus in its trade with the Philippines, with total Philippine imports from China exceeding $38 billion. The trade imbalance is often cited as a structural dependence.

Poverty and household impact

The sharp rise in food and transportation costs has significantly impacted low-income households, increasing the risk of poverty. Around 9.2 million families (roughly 35 percent) reported themselves as poor in the first quarter of 2026. Roughly 17 percent (4.5 million) of households experienced "involuntary hunger" in March 2026. The ongoing oil crisis could put an additional 1.34 million Filipinos at risk of falling below the poverty line. In brief, the poorest segments are the most affected by rising fuel and food prices (specifically rice and vegetables).

In response, the Marcos Jr. administration is implementing a multi-faceted approach to reduce poverty in the Philippines, targeting a reduction in poverty incidence to single-digit levels (roughly 9 percent or lower) by the end of its term in 2028. The strategy involves strengthening social protection, ensuring food security, accelerating infrastructure development, and generating high-quality jobs to combat the, as of 2023, 15.5 percent poverty rate.

All these, however, are on paper only. The structures of poverty and class inequality are so deeply-rooted as they have been for several decades that it will take a radical surgery to cure this social malady. The generational class system in the Philippines – founded on political and economic power – is tilted toward the rich which are becoming richer while the poor continue to wallow in poverty by the day.

"Red-Tagging" and Press Freedom

Despite Supreme Court rulings, "red-tagging" - the practice of labeling activists and journalists as communist insurgents - continues, with reports of continued harassment against civil society. State security forces often justify the practice as “anti-terrorism”, while human rights reports say leads to enforced disappearances and targeted killings. The practice of labeling progressive and patriotic activists as “terrorists” began during the Duterte presidency (2016-2022) when the practice of labeling activists, human rights defenders, and communist rebels as “terrorists” intensified significantly.

The peaceful advocacy of social and political transformation in the Philippines runs the risk of harassment and other coercive means by state forces.

Geopolitical Tensions and "Balikatan" Exercises

The 2026 Balikatan (“shoulder-to-shoulder”) war drills, featuring expanded participation from Japan, have increased tensions in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, with China conducting live-fire drills near Luzon in response. While some praise the strengthening of alliances with the US and Japan to defend territorial integrity, others argue that bringing in "external forces" puts the Philippines at risk of getting caught in a major conflict. US forces operations in the SCS/WPS have been defined as Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), US operations in the SCS/WPS. FONOPs was formally established in 1979 under the Jimmy Carter administration to challenge maritime claims. The program has been conducted globally for over 40 years.

In the recent war drills, the US Army launched a Tomahawk cruise missile from a Typhon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) launcher.

The continued military drills by the US, Philippines, and allies like Japan including the 19-day yearly Balikatan exercises in April featuring the largest contingent of foreign troops all the more heightened tensions in the South China Sea.

Marcos foreign policy on the US-Israel war with Iran

The presidential office said, President Marcos Jr.'s foreign policy regarding the US-Israel conflict with Iran is centered on pursuing peace and national interest, emphasizing the safe evacuation of Filipinos and minimizing economic damage to the Philippines. He has urged restraint and called for de-escalation, aiming for a neutral, "watching, waiting, hoping" approach that avoids formally backing or condemning the strikes while maintaining alliances.

On the other hand, trade relations between Iran and the Philippines are significant primarily for energy security, as the Philippines seeks to diversify oil imports from the Middle East and ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Key partnerships include potential investments in petrochemicals, agricultural trade (bananas), and employment agreements for Filipino mariners.

There are overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and Philippine residents in Iran, with estimates placing the number at around 1,180 individuals, many of whom are married to Iranian nationals.

Iran is a key supplier for the Philippines' energy needs, with discussions focusing on oil exploration and petroleum trade to stabilize high fuel prices. The Marcos government recently engaged in negotiations with Iran to ensure safe passage for Philippine-flagged oil tankers through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, agreements are in place to recognize Philippine maritime certificates, crucial for Filipino seafarers working in the international maritime industry.Meantime, Marcos in a meeting with Trump in 2022, reiterated his government’s strong defense alliance with the US. The iteration signified the Marcos government balancing strategy of maintaining robust trade relations with China while tying the Philippines’ hip to the US for national security interests.

In the main, Marcos has called for a "reset" in ties, with both China and the US sides taking "baby steps" toward a "new equilibrium". The Philippines and China resumed high-level dialogue, including the 11th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) and 24th Foreign Ministry Consultations in March 2026, focusing on maritime issues and potential oil and gas cooperation. #