Iran standing ground as US-Israel attacks surge

Bobby M. Tuazon

Iran is a battlefront curated by the US and Israel for regime change and for the control of its oil industry. A hypothetical defeat of Iran will make it expedient for the US to attack China, marginalize Russia, and rejuvenate its dying hegemonic interests. This scenario, however, is without empirical basis given the decline of the American empire and the accelerated rise of China while pushing the fragile US-centric unipolar world off the cliff in favor of a rising multipolar system.

Besieged since February by missile attacks and bombardments from Israel and US military bases in the Gulf region, Iran stands tall with successful retaliatory strikes. US President Donald Trump had threatened to exterminate Iran’s 8,000-year civilization. Recently, Trump freaked out threatening to unleash nuclear missiles on Iran. He asked his generals to give him the secret code for an apocalyptic nuke attack but his generals thrashed it away.

Since the war ignited in February this year about 3,700 Iranians have been killed including women and children. Several universities and hospitals were left in ruins.

Still, Iran’s self-defensive posture is succeeding and has brought the war into a stalemate. Its asymmetric strategies of using cheap drones, missiles, and regional proxies like the Hezbollah and Houthis militias are turning the tide against the aggressor countries.

Explaining further, while the US-Israel coalition has degraded Iranian air defenses, missile capabilities, and command structures, Iran uses a "mosaic" strategy of proxies and asymmetric warfare to turn vulnerability into resilience, with decentralized power allowing the system to survive decapitation attempts.

Emboldened by its “success” in Venezuela, the US aims at regime change in Tehran to allow a takeover of the West Asian country’s oil fields. One of its pivotal interests is to control the Strait of Hormuz where 25 percent of the world’s total daily seaborne oil trade passes through. Each day, this crucial chokepoint handles roughly 20 to 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products, serving as the primary exit for exports from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE.

Trump’s overarching goal is to overpower Iran which will then serve as a route to debilitate and take over Cuba and other countries. The fall of Iran will likely impact the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as BRICS where Iran participates and is a member, respectively. This, of course, will hardly happen. Right now, as soon as its infrastructure is attacked Iran is able to repair or work around damage to its missile programs. Enemy strikes cannot eliminate the nuclear knowledge and enriched uranium stockpiles Iran has acquired.

Israel, a Zionist cum genocidal state which aims to build a “Greater Israel”, considers Iran as an “existential threat” and aims for the comprehensive destruction of the country’s capabilities that would allow Tel Aviv’s hegemony in the region. But the war has scored a significant damage to Israel and increased energy/economic costs to the West, allowing Iran to successfully adopt a strategy of attrition.

Iran's strategy of attrition against the US and Israel is an asymmetric, long-term approach designed to gradually weaken its adversaries' military, economic, and psychological stamina rather than seeking a quick, conventional victory. By using drones, missiles, proxy forces, and targeting energy infrastructure to disrupt global markets, Tehran aims to make the cost of conflict unsustainable, forcing the US to reduce its presence and Israel to alter its security policies.

Tightening economic sanctions, the US threw a monkey wrench on Iran by enforcing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz aimed at severing Iran's economic lifeline, with a specific focus on curbing China's energy imports from Iran. The move is designed to dismantle a key pillar of China's regional architecture, disrupt oil supplies to Beijing, and exert pressure on China's economy. The blockade also creates a “selective” choke point designed to force China to bear the economic cost of the conflict.

China has responded to the move by calling it a reckless action that threatens global trade, while ensuring it has enough oil stockpiles to weather the disruption.

The question is, how long can the US sustain its war on Iraq? The US is facing a significant depletion of key conventional weapons stockpiles due to high-intensity operations in its Middle East war. The conflict has seen the US military use up large quantities of critical, high-end munitions, leading to concerns about readiness for other potential conflicts. Trump is muscle-flexing Europe to clinch a decisive victory in the Ukraine war.

China's core stakes in the Middle East revolve around securing energy supplies, protecting massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure investments, and ensuring trade route stability, particularly with roughly 38% of its oil imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Growing conflict—specifically involving Iran—threatens these interests, forcing Beijing to navigate between protecting its $270 billion Gulf investments and maintaining its strategic partnership with Tehran amid rising, destabilizing tensions. 

Beijing supports Iran's defense principally through technology transfers, supplying dual-use materials for missiles and drones, and providing satellite navigation (BeiDou) to improve targeting accuracy. Through trade networks, China helps mitigate sanctions, providing crucial revenue via oil purchases. As reported, Beijing’s support also includes potential transfers of radar systems and Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS).

The war may last for more weeks or months. Meantime, there are proposals for a ceasefire leading to a negotiated settlement. The fact, however, that Iran has surmounted the relentless attacks to its sovereignty and territorial integrity are sufficient enough to show that Tehran is winning.