POLITICAL RIFTS WIDEN AS SARA DUTERTE FACES IMPEACHMENT

US-Israel war in Iran may usher in a multipolar world

AUGUST 2026 MONTHLY POLITICAL ANALYSIS

Bobby M. Tuazon

Director for Policy Studies

CenPEG

August 2026

 With inflation rate easing to 6.5% in July 2026, the Philippines remained scarred by a 4.8% unemployment and 11% poverty alongside 52% self-rated poverty or more than half of the population. Compare the country’s low economic growth to the high intensity of political infighting among the country’s ruling elite particularly between the Ilocos-based Marcos dynasty and Davao-based Dutertes – and one may conclude that politics is going askew. Meanwhile, the US-Israel war against Iran has failed and may yet bring a strategic end to the American Empire.

The political rift centering on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte came out in the open in January 2024 - though underlying tensions built up immediately after their 2022 election victory. Clashing political ambitions, foreign policy differences, and direct attacks between the two powerful families led to the dissolution of the Uni-Team alliance.

In one instance, Marcos aligned the country closer to traditional defense ties with the United States and pushed back against Beijing in the South China Sea / West Philippine Sea. The Duterte camp favored closer ties with China.

Cracks surfaced in mid-2022 when Marcos appointed Duterte as education secretary rather than her preferred post as defense chief. Two years later, former president Rodrigo Duterte accused Marcos Jr. of being a drug addict, triggering an open public feud. At this point, the vice president resigned from her cabinet post ending the active cooperation of the party alliance.

Disagreements erupted over congressional scrutiny into the use of confidential and intelligence funds allocated to the vice-president’s office and the education department alongside investigations into the previous administration's drug war.

Tensions escalated into congressional budget cuts for the vice president's office, explosive public threats against Marcos and his wife together with then House Speaker Martin Romualdez in November 2024 and subsequent impeachment proceedings in Congress.

In a quick response, the presidential office and security officials called the comments as an "active threat" to national security, prompting investigations by the justice department and the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI).

The interwoven events were motivated by the political positioning for the 2028 presidential election, with both oligarchic families trying to secure future control.The political relationship between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte completely ruptured by end-July triggered by Duterte’s ongoing Senate impeachment trial, financial investigations, and escalating public hostilities.

Senate impeachment over financial and security threats

The Senate convened as an impeachment court on July 6 presided by Francis “Chiz” Escudero. The court tackled Article IV (alleged assassination threat/plot and grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former House Speaker Martin Romualdez) and Article I (alleged misuse and irregular disbursement of confidential funds).

In the most direct executive action impacting the vice president, Marcos Jr. authorized the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) to release the confidential tax records of Sara Duterte and her husband, Manases Carpio. Red boxes of financial data were turned over to the impeachment court to investigate prosecution claims that ₱6.77 billion in suspicious transactions flowed through the couple's bank accounts.

In effect, the Senate turned into an impeachment court to hear allegations of corruption against Vice President Duterte. The move turned somewhat into a politically-charged fistfight with Marcos supporters shouting for a knockout.

Bribery is the “most serious impeachment charge” that Filipinos believe could lead to the ouster of the vice president by an impeachment court, according to an Octa Research survey this month. Based on the “Tugon ng Masa” nationwide survey 43% of Filipinos identified bribery as the strongest allegation against the vice president.

Octa also found the bribery allegation ranks as the leading impeachment charge across all regions – 47% in Metro Manila, 54 percent in Visayas, 43 percent in Mindanao (the Dutertes’ turf), and 38% in Balance Luzon.

Bangsamoro gears for first elections

Meanwhile, in Muslim Philippines, the transition from decades of armed conflict to genuine democratic governance faces significant friction from traditional political dynasties, institutional delays, and security threats.

The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM, pop: 5.7M) is gearing for its first regular parliamentary elections on Sept. 14, with ₱114 billion allocated. The region continues to transition from decades of armed conflict toward self-governance, balancing steady economic expansion with political and security hurdles.

Decades of fighting from the 1950s to 2000s between Moro Muslim groups, i.e., Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), on one hand, and the Philippine government, on the other, caused massive displacement and loss of life, leading to a historic 2014 peace agreement and the creation of the BARMM.The decades-long conflict between the Philippine government and armed Muslim secessionists in Mindanao killed more than 150,000 lives, alongside millions of internally displaced civilians.

Following legislative and legal deferments - moving past initial 2022 and 2025 timelines - the region's historic first parliamentary elections followed the enactment of the new districting law (Bangsamoro Autonomy Act No. 86) in January 2026. The political landscape adjusted after the high court ruled in 2024 excluding Sulu province from the autonomous region and subsequent legal reviews regarding parliamentary seat redistribution.

The interim leadership under Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua emphasized "moral governance" as a guiding principle for regional ministries, local government consolidation, and bureaucratic reforms.

The Sept. 14 elections represent a complex struggle between a strong grassroots desire for self-determination and entrenched systemic challenges. While regional leadership declares the territory is fully prepared to demonstrate democratic maturity, the transition from decades of armed conflict to genuine democratic governance faces significant friction from traditional political clans, institutional delays, and security threats.

The core objective of the BARMM parliamentary system is to shift power away from traditional family dynasties (the "elite") toward program-based, regional political parties. The elections are a long-awaited realization of self-rule – as expressed by Moro citizens, civil society groups, and sectoral communities.

Proportional representation has been introduced to minimize clan-based dominance under which powerful traditional politicians and entrenched dynasties should adapt. The network of politically-active Moros has formed new coalitions or aligned with existing regional parties to secure their influence, indicating that breaking the elite’s hold on power will be a generational process if not resistance rather than an overnight shift.

Uprooting clan power is an uphill battle, however.

The ruling political dynasties in the BARMM include the Adiong family of Lanao del Sur, the Mangudadatus of Maguindanao, the Hatamans of Basilan, and previously the Tan family of Sulu. While these traditional clans hold immense local municipal and provincial clout, they face a fierce challenge for outright dominance from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) - the political wing of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) which the Commission on Elections (Comelec) designated as the dominant majority party for the Sept. 14 elections.

Election hurdles are critical. These include prohibiting party nominees related by consanguinity or affinity in order to curb pure dynastic monopoly; next is removing total dominance by traditional clans toward a hybrid landscape where prominent families either cooperate with or pivot toward the ruling MILF structure or position themselves under the dominant minority. Traditional clans are expected to retain substantial district-level influence, but systemic party rules and the unified machinery of the UBJP make total clan domination of the new parliament in contestation.

To guarantee inclusivity beyond the elite, the 80-seat parliament (reduced to 73 following the high court's exclusion of Sulu), reserves specific seats for marginalized sectors, including women, youth, traditional leaders, settlers, and Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples (NMIP).

To be fair and democratic, elections and subsequent governance should overcome the institutional and legal hurdles, including disarmament: Under the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB), the disarmament of former MILF warriors is tied to the normalization process. Yet decommissioning is incomplete – hence, a massive volume of unregistered firearms remains in circulation.

Traditional election narratives show that who controls the guns, goons and gold win.

Further, the elections will not be judged solely by voter turnout, but by whether the new parliament can genuinely reflect and act for the will of the masses over the vested interests of the powerful few.

NATIONAL ECONOMY

For long, the national economy has been service-driven with over 60% of its GDP and employment relying on retail, tourism, IT-BPOs, and other services. This is largely due to high domestic consumer spending, and steady overseas worker remittances, rather than heavy manufacturing. 

Productivity in the Philippines is mixed. While overall GDP grows fast (often above 5% annually), productivity varies greatly by sector. Finance, insurance, real estate, and IT-communication show strong output and modern technological value. Conversely, traditional services like small retail, local transport, and food services rely on low-to-medium-skilled jobs, which limit overall per-worker output. 

While services generate steady employment and growth, the lack of a strong industrial and manufacturing base holds back deeper, long-term economic gains. 

Hence, the Philippines lacks a strong industrial and manufacturing base - holding back long-term economic gains. Manufacturing contributes only around 15.7% of the country's GDP, which lags significantly behind regional Asean peers who average 22% to 27%. This structural limitation restricts job creation, deep integration, and stable wage growth.

Ironically, the Philippines' total economic size measured in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms is about $1.572 trillion for 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This places the country as the 31st largest economy globally when adjusted for the local cost of living.

WORLD AFFAIRS

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. stands in the frontline of the US-backed Marcos administration's aggressive pushback against China’s maritime claims. Under President Marcos Jr., the Philippines pivoted from the Beijing-friendly stance of the previous Duterte administration to a firm, transparent defense strategy. The administration’s overarching anti-China stance and the recent scrutiny of Jinan University - revolve around, as claimed, protecting Philippine sovereignty, exposing state-sponsored espionage, and managing information warfare.

This argument falls flat against the long operations of the CIA in the Philippines coupled with the presence of nine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreements (EDCAs) practically run by the US, frequent war drills, and sea operations of the US Navy in the South China on the pretext of “Freedom of Navigation Operations” (FONOPs) conducted by the US Navy and Air Force to challenge maritime claims made by China.

Specifically, Teodoro Jr. raised concerns over China's Jinan University for training Chinese-language teachers deployed in the Philippines.

Revisiting America’s real goal in the Philippines

The US architect of the Cold War policy of containment and head of the State Department Policy Planning Staff, George Kennan in 1948 viewed the Philippines as a vital component of an off-shore Pacific security perimeter tied to the defense of Japan. Kennan recognized that strategic control of key maritime bastions -specifically naming Japan and the Philippines - was vital to block potential threats from the Asian mainland.

Kennan’s policy advisory continues to guide US foreign policy as illustrated by its “encirclement and containment” strategy against China. It explains the role of the Philippines as a strategic pillar for US military projection in Asia targeting China as an “existential threat.”

US-Israel war of aggression in Iran

The June ceasefire reached between Iran and the US, collapsed followed by intensified kinetic strikes and battles for control of the Strait of Hormuz. By mid-July, senior Iranian officials led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the June 14 US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) ceasefire was officially dead. The core issue behind the collapse was a fundamental disagreement over the contract's fifth clause, which governed the freedom of navigation and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic tracks effectively stalled as Iran rejected any future proposals leaving the legal and physical status of the Strait ambiguous.

While initial US and Israeli airstrikes severely damaged Iranian military infrastructure and leadership, the broader objectives such as forcing regime change or permanently dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile programs failed.

Significantly, Iran leveraged its geographical position to exert de facto control or disruption over commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, giving Tehran significant leverage over global energy flows despite active US counter-strikes. Worse, intensive air and missile defense operations drained US interceptor stockpiles, spreading American defense resources thin while other global security challenges persisted.

In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting US facilities and installations in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Jordan.

Backing Iranian self-defense were China and Russia in tracking and targeting US military installations in the Middle East.

As the last week of July approached, US President Donald Trump thumbed down a Pentagon proposal for a 14^th consecutive night of air raids, favoring a diplomatic window mediated by an Omani delegation that arrived in Tehran. In turn, Iran halted active strikes against US bases, conditioning its restraint on the US maintaining its pause on air operations.

All these resulted in a grinding war of attrition rather than a clear strategic victory for Iran.

Originally a project of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with US backing, the war on Iran brough severe military and economic losses to Iran. The Tehran government however achieved a major geopolitical victory. It prevented the US and Israel from achieving their primary objectives - regime change/decapitation or the elimination of the country’s top leadership, and the total dismantlement of its nuclear and missile programs.

Once divided by ideologically-driven factions, the war on Iran united the nation with millions of people volunteering for the militia.

The US has launched 100 wars of aggression since the end of World War 2. Iran, geopolitical analysts say, is bringing US imperialism to its end marking the entry of a multipolar world, with no single power reigning over global hegemony.

Is it a sign of world peace, finally? Time will tell. #