DUTERTE DYNASTY FOREVER?

Is Sara’s likely substitute, Sebastian, fit for the presidency?

Independent critics and people's organizations do not think the vice president is fit for her current job and the presidency, citing issues of accountability, transparency, and public conduct. Neither is her brother, Sebastian.

For decades, the feudal and despicable tribe of family dynasties like the Marcoses and Dutertes has dominated Philippine electoral politics. Their political rule has endured through the country’s systemic banes: Rulers are the harbingers of corruption. Their reign is a roadblock to solving deeply rooted class inequality, poverty, and social injustice.

Issue Analysis No. 16

Prof. Bobby M. Tuazon

CenPEG's Director for Policy Studies

October 27, 2026

If Vice President Sara Duterte is disqualified from seeking the presidency in 2028 after being convicted in the ongoing impeachment, she will most likely be replaced by her brother, Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte.

This week, U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines Lee Lipton, and New Zealand’s Catherine McIntosh met Duterte in Davao City. Speculations were rife that their visit was a virtual endorsement for Duterte’s possible presidential run in 2028 if his sister, Vice President Sara Duterte, is disqualified from running upon conviction by the Senate impeachment court.

The high-profile courtesy calls by Lipton and McIntosh on Sebastian "Baste" Duterte have sparked intense discussion. Whether the visits were explicit endorsements for a 2028 presidential bid may misread traditional diplomatic protocol.

But what makes Sebastian Duterte more important than Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, where the U.S. embassy is located or, for that matter, Mayor Joy Belmonte where Quezon City is known as having the biggest revenues in the country?

The drivers behind these meetings may constitute routine local governance engagement, strategic economic interests, and the inevitable calculations of geopolitics.

Possible reasons being floated: Local governments routinely host foreign envoys. McIntosh’s visit was directly tied to her attendance at the first Mindanao Indigenous Peoples Trade Expo (MIPTEX), which was co-organized by the New Zealand government to promote indigenous entrepreneurship. Lipton's visit was on the pretext of broader economic development and humanitarian initiatives in Mindanao and the BARMM region.

While not an endorsement, Western diplomats recognize the Dutertes as a highly influential political dynasty – with, however as many critics say, a troubling record. Washington and its allies routinely engage with prominent traditional political factions across the country. This allows them to gather intelligence about domestic political shifts leading up to 2028 and safeguard long-term military interests, such as American bases, as well as infusing more economic and industrial investments regardless of who is in power.

Will a victory by Sebastian Duterte fundamentally pivot his family away from China? The dynamics of his potential administration would look more nuanced than a simple replication of his father’s policies.

In the realm of policy, the Duterte political brand is closely associated with a pragmatic, often friendly stance toward Beijing for purposes of trade and more investments especially in Mindanao, contrastive to the current Marcos administration’s strong alignment with the U.S. Vice President Sara Duterte and former President Rodrigo Duterte have historically leaned into these ties.

Mayor Baste Duterte himself has engaged directly with Chinese officials - such as hosting Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan in January 2026 to strengthen local-level cooperation.

Observers note that a Baste presidency would likely attempt to play both sides to maximize economic concessions, though its default ideological stance would lean more toward strategic autonomy or a softer approach to Beijing than the current status quo.

Assuming that Sebastian Duterte is apt to lead, running a local government allows him to compartmentalize foreign relations into local business trade. If he takes a national stage, domestic pressure regarding the West Philippine Sea and existing defense treaties (like the EDCA with the U.S.) would force him to balance the Duterte family's pro-China legacy against a highly pro-Western defense establishment and public sentiment in the Philippines.

As Davao City mayor, Sebastian Duterte has made headlines for direct verbal assaults and public exchanges, including a viral proposal for a fistfight/charity boxing match with PNP Chief General Nicolas Torre III. He also faced public scrutiny regarding city government service contracts (such as GenCorp awards), a subject of investigation during political and legislative hearings, as well as strong political stances defending his family amid international and domestic probes.

Meanwhile, Sara Duterte’s second impeachment is grounded on four primary articles detailing alleged impeachable offenses: Article I (Misuse of Public Funds); Article II (Unexplained Wealth): Article III (Bribery and Procurement Irregularities); and Article IV (Grave Threats and Seditious Incitement).

On Oct. 13, three of the four impeachment articles were withdrawn. Earlier, on Oct. 13, the Senate impeachment court accepted the prosecution’s withdrawal of the charges involving confidential funds, bribery, and alleged threats against President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and others.

The remaining article concerns alleged unexplained wealth. The case is backed by financial evidence that the defense disputes. A prosecution forensic-accounting expert testified that his examination identified about P817.87 million in allegedly unexplained wealth involving Duterte and her husband between 2022 and 2025.

Then on Sept. 23, the Senate impeachment court ruled that only senators legally and factually capable of participating would count toward the two-third threshold. With 20 eligible participants, for example, 14 votes would be required. The Supreme Court dismissed challenges to that ruling on procedural grounds on Sept. 30; it did not thereby resolve every possible constitutional objection to the interpretation.

In the impeachment proceedings against VP Sara Duterte, four senators were excluded or unable to participate from the active voting base when the Senate impeachment court adjusted its conviction threshold.

The four are Jinggoy Estrada who is detained on plunder and related charges; Rodante Marcoleta, also detained on related legal charges; Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, at large and did not take his oath as a senator-judge after avoiding an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant of arrest; and Loren Legarda who is reportedly physically and medically incapacitated while on extended medical leave abroad due to a lung condition.

The trial resumes on Nov. 9, an official report said, when Duterte’s defense is expected to begin presenting its evidence, subject to the court’s procedural decisions.

The constitutional grounds are vital: Article XI, Section 2 of the 1987 Constitution includes culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust among the grounds for impeachment. Section 3(6) requires a two-third vote for conviction.

The Senate impeachment court is focused on the remaining unexplained wealth allegation, the strength of the defense’s response, and the Senate’s eventual vote – not simply on the number or seriousness of the original charges. The withdrawal of three articles has narrowed what the Senate must decide, while the revised voting rule has changed the arithmetic of conviction. Neither development, on its own, establishes the verdict.

The central issues to watch when the trial resumes are: Can the remaining allegations be proved to the Senate’s satisfaction, and can the prosecution secure the required votes?

However, an impeachment conviction does not automatically carry a prison sentence. The constitutional penalties for impeachment are limited to immediate removal from office; and permanent disqualification from holding any public office in the Philippines.

Nonetheless, under the Constitution, an impeached official is still subject to criminal and civil prosecution in regular courts. If separate criminal cases (such as plunder, graft, corruption, or grave threats) are filed, tried, and proven in court, she can face standard imprisonment terms defined by Philippine penal laws (for example, plunder carries a penalty of life imprisonment up to death/Reclusion Perpetua). Capital punishment has been nullified under the law.

Will there be a political compromise? Unlikely. This option lacks a constitutional path, say House prosecutors.

Meanwhile, family members and close allies have already been floated as direct substitutes if the Duterte faction seeks to retain its voter base and political influence.

Aside from Sebastian Duterte, Sens. Robin Padilla and Christopher “Bong” Go are also strong alternatives for her electoral base.

Another senator, Raffy Tulfo, consistently holds the third spot in early presidential preference polls (polling between 12% to 14%) and could absorb a segment of voters seeking a populist leader.

But Sebastian Duterte towers above them: He has been explicitly designated by Duterte party leadership (PDP) and political strategists as the primary alternative presidential candidate if Sara is disqualified. Padilla, meanwhile, is heavily favored by the Duterte patriarch, former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, now detained at Den Haag, to run as the administration's main populist opponent.

Senator Go, a staunch Duterte loyalist who regularly tops vice-presidential preference surveys, remains a highly viable alternative to anchor the political faction.

Former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo remain the strongest polling option for the liberal sectors, frequently placing second behind Sara Duterte in national preference surveys. Another possible presidential candidate is opposition Sen. Risa Hontiveros. She has publicly expressed interest in 2028 and gained traction through high-profile legislative investigations.

With the Duterte-Marcos UniTeam alliance in disarray, the incumbent administration forces are expected to field their own candidate, whose chances would strengthen in Sara Duterte's absence: A potential standard bearer for the administration’s security and policy platform is China’s nemesis, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, Jr. Teodoro has a weak political base.

Although focused on parliamentary leadership, the name of former House Speaker Martin Romualdez, a Marcos cousin, is consistently raised within administration circles regarding long-term succession strategies.

But Romualdez is a certain loser. He registers low public preference in early 2028 presidential preference in Pulse Asia and WR Numero polls - ranging from 1% to 6%. And he and must overcome the historical "Speaker's Curse" where no sitting or former House Speaker in post-EDSA Philippine politics has won the presidency.

Romualdez hails from the Visayas. Sara Duterte, on the other hand. has roots in Mindanao which could deliver solid and decisive votes for her presidential run.

Robredo, meanwhile, has ruled out a 2028 race – explicitly saying she intends to focus on local governance, and that she will seek a second term as the Naga mayor. She has publicly appealed for an end to "savior politics" and called on the opposition to build up alternative national leaders.

As typical politicians go, Robredo may renege on her promise. She will decide once a “popular public petition” calls for her to make a go.

Political parties like the Liberal Party continue to organize in hopes Robredo will change her mind. If she does choose to run, surveys suggest she has “a highly competitive chance”. Robredo consistently ranks second in major nationwide surveys (such as Pulse Asia and OCTA Research), holding a solid 26%-34% base of voter support.

In a hypothetical head-to-head match against Sara Duterte, polling from late 2026 shows Robredo narrowing the gap significantly to 43% vs 34% (with 22% undecided). Pulse Asia notes this 9-point margin keeps the race fluid and highly competitive.

In specific polling scenarios that exclude other prominent figures, Robredo immediately jumps to the lead (around 29%), probably indicating a potential to unify the fragmented anti-Duterte and anti-incumbent vote.

Rumors surfaced suggesting a "compromise deal" where Duterte would either resign or accept a conviction in exchange for dropping the perpetual disqualification clause, allowing her to run in the 2028 presidential election. However, House prosecution spokespersons and legal advisers firmly rejected this. They noted that the 1987 Philippine Constitution mandates both removal from office and permanent disqualification if an official is convicted, meaning there is no legal baseline for a halfway deal.

Overall, the impeachment trial acts as a decisive gateway for the 2028 elections. A full conviction bars Duterte from running, whereas a drawn-out trial that ends in acquittal or dismissal could turn her into a political martyr, boosting her frontrunner prospects.

But the main question remains: Is Sara Duterte fit for her job as vice president? If not, even more will she mess up with the presidential post.

Prosecutors in Congress are examining Vice President Duterte's fitness to hold office amid an array of allegations of wrongdoing. The “confidential funds” issue has led critics and lawmakers to question transparency and adherence to budget laws. Critics, including legal figures and opposing lawmakers such as Atty. Lorna Kapunan, argue that public behavior, missed budget hearings, and lack of accountability regarding financial accounts undermine her qualification for the role. Observers have also criticized her tenure and capability as former Secretary of the Department of Education (DepEd) regarding fund use and learning metrics.

Independent critics and people's organizations do not think the vice president is fit for her job either, citing issues of accountability, transparency, and public conduct.

Sectoral groups and youth organizations (such as Bayan, Bayan Muna political party, and the National Union of Students of the Philippines), and watchdog critics condemn her on the unexcused or disallowed use of confidential funds.

Other critics view her announced 2028 presidential bid as a political shield and an evasion of accountability. Progressive and civil society groups argue that her behavior undermines national leadership standards. They label her performance weak, pointing to underutilized funds, unresolved classroom backlogs, and a failure to tackle systemic literacy crises.

Regardless of the outcome of her impeachment, recall that Sara Duterte won by a landslide vote in the 2022 vice presidential derby, garnering the highest share of votes among vice presidential candidates. The former mayor of Davao City and the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, registered over 61 percent of the total votes. Her closest competitor was Senator Kiko Pangilinan who received just 18 percent of the total votes.

Here lies the alternative candidate: Sebastian Duterte. But, in the first place, is Sebastian Duterte fit to be the next president?

While legal eligibility is straightforward, a candidate's "fitness" - meaning their competence, character, and readiness to lead a nation - is subjective. Public viewpoints regarding his fitness (competence, character and readiness to lead) are deeply divided.

For millions of loyal Duterte supporters, Sebastian represents a continuity of his family's strong arm signature which they believe is necessary for “national discipline”. He has also taken on prominent leadership roles nationally, such as becoming the party president of Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP).

Conversely, opponents argue that managing a single city does not automatically equate to the national competence needed to navigate complex country-wide economic, foreign policy, and social issues.

His potential candidacy is part of a strategic family fallback plan - especially considering the political friction and potential impeachment challenges facing his sister. Critics voice concerns that the presidency shouldn't be treated like family fortune rather than an office requiring heavily vetted national merit.

Opposing groups often highlight local governance challenges during Sebastian’s mayoral term, such as severe city flooding, ongoing friction with national police leadership, and criticisms concerning localized crime control.

For decades, the feudal tribe of family dynasties like the Marcoses and Dutertes has dominated Philippine electoral politics. Their prolonged political rule has endured over the country’s systemic corruption: The political elite are the harbingers of corruption –their rule a roadblock to solving poverty, class inequality, and social injustice.

Ultimately, while Sebastian Duterte ticks every box required by law to run, the final judgment of his actual fitness to lead the nation rests solely with the Filipino electorate at the ballot box assuming it is fair, clean, and with zero vulnerability to fraud. #