SONA: THE RISE AND FALL OF MARCOS JR.

Monthly Analysis

July 2026

Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)

Bobby M. Tuazon

Director for Policy Studies

CenPEG

29 July 2026

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s  penultimate State of the Nation Address (SONA) delivered on July 27, 2026 before a joint session of Congress – with 12 of the 24-Senate members inconspicuously absent - was short on performance but long on promises even as his talk was interrupted by a string of applauses and standing ovations.

His talk was lengthy on the country’s economy and alternative energy - reflecting a mix of verified milestones, ambiguous targets with tracking delays, and shifting energy policies. Marcos Jr. also manages to call for comprehensive reform albeit sans tackling institutional bottlenecks particularly on the economy while pointing out inaccurate figures on land reform.

With many provinces paralyzed by brownouts, Marcos Jr. pledged to work on alternative energy like solar, wind farms, as well as encourage electricity-run cars and buses. The Marcos plan is far from being people-centered and is delusional - 94% of Filipinos own no cars. Conversely, train systems across provinces are in disrepair needing immediate rehabilitation; this also requires settling property issues involving the railway system with billions of pesos needed.

In foreign policy, the president lashed out at China over the latter’s maritime claims and reported use of coercion against Filipino fishermen.

Conversely, he failed to expound on his extensive security alliance with the US as illustrated by the presence of nine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreements (EDCA) sites located across the country. No mention was made either on frequent US-Philippine war drills often participated by US allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia coming from the Asia-Pacific with China as the hypothetical target.

All these run counter to the constitutional provisions adhering to an independent and neutral foreign policy which are impeachable.

Rhetoric against ground realities

A significant gap exists between the macroeconomic optimism highlighted by Marcos Jr. and the socioeconomic distress experienced by marginalized Filipinos. The condition defines Philippine society as still semi-feudal left behind by more developed and industrialized neighboring countries.

While the Marcos Jr. regime points to high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers, progressive groups and think tanks such as IBON Foundation point to deep-seated structural issues, extensive poverty, and persistent inequality as evidence of an underdeveloped economic system.

These institutional gridlocks drive masses of Filipinos to the margins and social unrest. Thus, Marcos Jr.’s SONA narratives contradict the structural criticisms raised by civil society and progressive analysts, to iterate: highlighting repetitively that the Philippines has transitioned toward an upper middle-income country which squarely faces off Chinese leaders’ assessment regarding their country’s middle-income status with a developing economy. For one, the World Bank’s income status cited by the Philippine president is based on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and does not measure wealth distribution.

Progressive groups note that the richest 2% of families, including the Marcoses and many corrupt bureaucrats and traditional oligarchs, hold as much wealth as the bottom 80% combined.

No self-respecting Filipino will agree with Marcos Jr.’s claim about continuing distribution of land titles particularly to poor peasants. Farmers groups led by the Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP, Peasant Movement of the Philippines) point out that genuine land reform remains unachieved despite a presidential promise 50 years ago to institute a Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP).

Hence, till today, landlords and big corporations like the Villar properties retain vast agricultural lands, while small farmers remain landless tenants facing criminalization when defending land rights.

The semi-feudal social matrix shows the Philippines as having a hybrid system: The agricultural sector is dominated by a few powerful landlord-elite families who extract rent and labor from a vast majority of poor, asset-less farmers. On the other hand, the local business - comprador capitalists - do not manufacture basic goods or industrial machinery. Instead, a small merchant elite (big compradors) profit primarily by importing foreign goods and exporting raw materials or cheap labor.

Moreover, the absence of heavy domestic industries, e.g., steel manufacturing,

keeps the economy perpetually weak, underdeveloped, and reliant on foreign loans.

Infrastructure and strategic investments

The Marcos Jr. administration claims to champion "Green Lanes," billions in foreign investments, and advanced manufacturing (AI, semiconductors) to spark job growth.

However, these investments reinforce a flawed economic design. Without a core national industrialization plan, the country remains highly reliant on imported capital equipment and foreign debt while merely exporting low-value assembly goods or labor like the Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs).

Likewise, the economy is heavily sustained by the service sector, particularly Business Process Outsourcing (BPOs) and remittances from OFWs.

There is, arguably, a sharp contradiction in the SONA narrative. While the Marcos Jr. administration celebrates high-level statistical indices and foreign partnerships, the fundamental structure of the economy continues to leave tens of millions of marginalized Filipinos trapped in poverty and vulnerable to rising living costs.

Still, Marcos Jr. underlined one of his core priorities like building more classrooms and strengthening foundational instruction to be funded by a P1.34-trillion education budget allocation.

In this context, he rues over the country’s state of quality education, particularly in the high school system – an issue denounced for years by progressive political parties like the ACT-Teachers. There is, he said, a massive shortage of over 140,000 public school classrooms, resulting in cramped rooms and shifting schedules. He complained about low proficiency: International and local assessments show Filipino high school students struggling with basic proficiency in math, science, and reading skills.

Global assessments show the Philippines trailing behind regional peers in basic learning competencies.

His plan: Reform the high school frame to repair gaps in learning quality. Toward this, he called for prioritizing vocational-technical (VocTech) training to align graduates with current workforce and industry demands. The training’s aim: backed by upskilling and re-skilling programs, the program will gear mid-school graduates toward immediate and practical employment.

This band-aid remedy sidesteps quality education which, in turn, arises from having most professional educators destined abroad to work at nursing homes or as domestics.

How successful the training is, remains a challenge.

Marcos Jr. also reported that solar and renewable energy initiatives will be scaled up to lower long-term power costs and secure clean energy capacity.

Deliberately bypassing partisan political squabbles – such as the impeachment charge faced by his vice president, Sara Duterte, Marcos Jr. also focused on, aside from economic recovery, building infrastructure, and basic services, in an effort to project a technocratic leadership that delivers direct results rather than engaging in political theater.

Like past presidents, Marcos Jr.’s talk consistently centered on bread-and-butter issues like inflation, job creation, health, and agricultural production.

Economy & energy: A reality check

The president also claims that his administration is pursuing around 200 energy projects with a combined capacity of nearly 10,000 megawatts to stabilize the power grid and reduce costs. Actual implementation, however, is delayed. Breaking down, 45 projects have been completed, 31 are expected online within the year, and 124 are scheduled through 2028 – end of his term.

As of early 2026, only 31 of the total targeted facilities had been officially activated. While the pipeline exists, the pace of construction indicates that the administration remains far from achieving its ultimate operational goals.

Increasing solar energy

In addition, Marcos Jr. highlighted large-scale infrastructure gains and pushed for legislation to expand rooftop solar adoption. He urged Congress to pass the “Sariling Kuryente Act” to streamline residential solar panel and battery installations.

The push for utility-scale solar may be highly visible and record-breaking, but residential execution requires legislative backing. Marcos Jr. inaugurated Phase I of the Meralco Terra (MTerra) Solar Project in Nueva Ecija, hyped as the world's largest integrated solar and battery storage facility and is slated to power 2.4 million homes by 2027.

While large-scale solar investments are booming, the administration's broader transition strategy has diversified; Marcos Jr. prioritized reviving nuclear energy – ecologists’ nightmare - and natural gas alongside solar to cushion consumers against high electricity rates.

Soft approach

While Marcos Jr. has initiated high-level investigations into corrupt public works and flood control anomalies, many cases are still pending.

In his SONA, Marcos Jr. exposed systemic irregularities and ghost projects in infrastructure, leading to the creation of the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI).

In pursuance, he said, both the Ombudsman and justice department received evidentiary bundles implicating dozens of individuals, including high-ranking public works and highways, private contractors, and lawmakers. Acting on the complaints, the Anti-Money Laundering Council froze several bank accounts, real estate properties, and vehicles tied to suspects under preliminary investigation.

Despite administrative vows from authorities expecting high-profile detentions, critics and legal monitors note that court-ordered convictions and actual jail terms have not yet materialized as cases move through preliminary investigation and the Sandiganbayan.

The country’s justice system walks at a snail’s pace. Money frees the guilty.

But here’s the caveat: While it is partly true that Marcos Jr. initiated high-level investigations into corrupt public works and flood control anomalies, he has not prosecuted and jailed the implicated officials. While the administration and independent bodies have filed criminal complaints and secured asset freezes, active trials and final court convictions leading to prison sentences are still pending.

Foreign policy

In his SONA, Marcos Jr. directly targeted Beijing following a controversial Chinese state-run media video. He declared, "We are not greedy. We are not racists. We are no liars. We are Filipinos, and we do not yield." This was also a reaction to fresh June/July maritime clashes where Chinese Coast Guard personnel, reports said, “assaulted and injured” Filipino sailors at Ayungin Shoal.

Marcos Jr. minimized direct mentions of the United States to preserve the narrative that the Philippines "no longer subscribes to a bipolar world where you have to choose one side over the other." By framing defense pacts as purely defensive, his administration attempts to avoid looking like a tool for US containment against China.

While the Marcos administration claims a "balanced" policy, substantial, concrete evidence demonstrates that Marcos Jr. has systematically pivoted the Philippines back into Bua tight strategic alliance with the United States, reversing the China-friendly diplomatic stance of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. In the Duterte term, the US bases remained untouchable, however.

Similarly, during his term Marcos Jr. solidified the Japan-US-Philippines trilateral alliance, embedding Manila into Washington's broader and hostile Indo-Pacific security framework. This framework secures explicit US confirmations that the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty covers armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft anywhere in the South China Sea.

PAX SILICA

Pax Silica (“Silicon Peace”) is a US-led economic security coalition of 24 nations formed to secure global supply chains for artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor manufacturing, and critical minerals. Its strategic goal is to reduce global technological reliance on China.

The Marcos Jr. administration joined the alliance and agreed to host a 1,619-hectare (4,000-acre) Economic Security Zone (ESZ) in New Clark City, Tarlac, designed to process critical minerals and manufacture advanced electronics.

Although the Philippine government maintains legal jurisdiction and administrative control over the project it has sparked intense domestic debate regarding its long-term geopolitical, legal, and economic implications.

The collective policy pattern reaffirms Marcos Jr.’s pro-US and anti-China foreign policy principle.

Revisiting pre-SONA public expectation & trust rating

Based on pre-SONA surveys by Pulse Asia and EON x Tangere, Filipinos primarily expected the president to address anti-corruption efforts, inflation, and job creation. They wanted concrete solutions to current hardships rather than a list of past achievements.

Grounding this paper’s analysis, pre-SONA public opinion polls highlighted key public concerns, including the EON-Tangere Pre-SONA Survey, the Pulse Asia/Stratbase Survey, and the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Survey. These surveys tracked citizen expectations, primary national anxieties, and presidential trust ratings.

Collectively, the opinion surveys found the following: 48.3% or nearly half of Filipinos wanted concrete solutions to current problems; 22% wanted an accomplishment report;

30% prioritized affordable basic food (rice, meat, fish); 28% wanted action to eliminate corruption; and 28% prioritized job creation.

Meanwhile, a June 2026 SWS pre-SONA poll placed Marcos Jr.’s trust rating at a low 34% (down one point from March), with 45% expressing little trust and 19% undecided.

To recap, public trust ratings of most presidents show a high percentage in the beginning only to fall in the final stage of their term.

IS MARCOS LISTENING AND TAKING HEED?