XI-TRUMP SUMMIT ENDS IN STALEMATE

Maritime dispute sidelined by Taiwan

The Xi-Trump September summit may have stabilized momentarily their countries’ relationship. But it does not make the Philippine situation any better. The room of competition is big only for the two powers but small for a country like the Philippines to wriggle its way from the main contenders.

Bobby M. Tuazon

Director for Policy Studies Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)

The high-stakes, three-day Washington summit (Sept. 24-26, 2026), between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping yielded very few policy breakthroughs. But both sides agreed to keep the lines of communication open.

The two leaders prioritized stabilizing their bilateral relationship to avoid open confrontation, though major underlying tensions remain unaddressed. The US sees China as an “existential threat” – its greatest enemy - but Beijing dismisses such claims as "Cold War" fearmongering. China has repeatedly denied aiming to replace US global hegemony – a course of action that will bring bigger risks.

In the summit, China practically held most – if not all – of the cards. While China’s growth continues to accelerate that of the US is on a downhill. China continues to outpace the US, with an annual growth rate of roughly 5% against the US’ 1.6%. Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - which measures local buying power - China’s economy edges past the US at $45 trillion.

Trump, on the other hand, faces a severe affordability crisis at home, a national debt surpassing $40 trillion, and public dissatisfaction over persistent inflation linked to his tariff policies and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Public approval for his handling of the economy has crashed to 32%.

Topping the two leaders’ summit were trade tariffs policy, artificial intelligence (AI), regional security issues including Taiwan, and the conflict involving Iran. China along with Russia supports Iran’s self-defense against the US-Israeli war of aggression unleashed last February.

Xi and Trump agreed on a modest two-month truce extension of the contentious US tariffs on Chinese imports. US tariffs stand at 48% covering all goods, following an intense escalation of tit-for-tat tariff spikes that reached peaks of up to 145% in 2025 before a subsequent truce and court rulings adjusted the rates.

The talks also opened recalcitrant issues and conflicts. On artificial intelligence (AI), the Chinese leader emphasized the shared responsibility to manage AI safely under human control, warning against a "zero-sum gladiatorial contest". Conversely, Trump resisted heavy sector regulations, remaining focused on maintaining a competitive US edge over China.

The two leaders’ meeting carried critical geopolitical and economic implications for the Philippines, primarily centering on maritime security in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea and regional trade stability. In an earlier phone call, Trump assured Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. that his concerns regarding confrontations in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea would be brought up during the Trump-Xi talks. Whether Trump’s promise was carried out remains a question.

The Marcos Jr. government continues to anchor its security posture on nine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreements (EDCAs) and robust defense ties with Washington, even as Manila insists it pursues an independent foreign policy rather than choosing a permanent side.

The SCS / WPS territorial dispute, however, was sidelined by the Taiwan issue.

Taiwan – claimed by China as its island province - was a primary flashpoint of the private discussions. President Xi pressed Trump heavily on the issue, demanding that the US "adhere to the correct position of opposing" Taiwanese independence. This marked an aggressive rhetorical push from Beijing, trashing aside the US’ standard albeit ambiguous policy that it does not support independence.

In the 1982 Shanghai communique, the US acknowledged “that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China". This is the third of three joint communiqués that shaped modern US-China diplomatic relations.

In this light, regional anxieties persist even as Trump previously paused a $14 billion arms package to Taiwan after the two leaders’ May summit in Beijing.

An acute issue is the US blockade of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blocking Beijing’s access to Tehran’s crude oil – 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) or 14% of China’s total crude oil imports. Washington placed over 1,000 Chinese companies and individuals on various .economic restriction and sanctions lists.

If Trump – known to be agreement-incapable – never brought up the Philippine maritime feud during the summit – the Manila government will be compelled to balance its “ironclad” US defense alliance with managing persistent maritime friction with China. Major powers’ stability reduces immediate global trade risks, but regional security challenges in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea remain an irritant.

The Marcos Jr. government may have to realize that America prioritizes its own vested interests and avoid, at this time, creating friction with Beijing harmful to its trade relations with China.

Moreover, while the Manila government maintains strong ties with Washington it should avoid the major countries’ collision that will drag it into troubled waters. The Philippines may have to opt for diplomacy to navigate unpredictable US-China adjustments. This track is made complex by the government’s defense alliances not only with the US but also with Japan and Australia which makes its avowed “independent foreign policy” controvertible. The Den Haag resolution of the South China Sea territorial disputes is deterred by third party meddling in violation of international law and remains unenforceable.

The solution to the maritime dispute had been agreed upon 2017 in a meeting between then Philippine President Rodrigo R. Duterte and Chinese President Xi that established a bilateral dialogue mechanism to resolve the conflict. However, no deal has been reached so far after several sub-ministerial meetings due to third-party meddling.

How long should the Philippine government wait to settle its complex foreign policy is anybody’s guess. As this author has consistently emphasized: Only a strong economy can build an independent foreign policy that will compel major countries like China and its own ally, America, to show respect to the Filipino people. #