WILL SARA DUTERTE’S CONVICTION SIGNAL THE END OF THE DUTERTE DYNASTY?

The flock of presidential contenders is getting bigger

Independent critics and people's organizations do not think the vice president is fit for her job, citing issues of accountability, transparency, and public conduct.

Issue Analysis No. 16

Prof. Bobby M. Tuazon

CenPEG's Director for Policy Studies

October 27, 2026

If Vice President Sara Duterte is disqualified from seeking the presidency in 2028 after being convicted in the ongoing impeachment, she will most likely be replaced by her brother, Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte.

Sara Duterte’s second impeachment is grounded on four primary articles detailing alleged impeachable offenses: Article I (Misuse of Public Funds); Article II (Unexplained Wealth): Article III (Bribery and Procurement Irregularities); and Article IV (Grave Threats and Seditious Incitement).

But on Oct. 25, three of the four impeachment articles have been withdrawn. On Oct. 13, the Senate impeachment court accepted the prosecution’s withdrawal of the charges involving confidential funds, bribery, and alleged threats against President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and others.

The remaining article concerns alleged unexplained wealth. The case is backed by financial evidence that the defense disputes. A prosecution forensic-accounting expert testified that this examination identified about P817.87 million in allegedly unexplained wealth involving Duterte and her husband between 2022 and 2025.

Then on Sept. 23, the Senate impeachment court ruled that only senators legally and factually capable of participating would count toward the two-third threshold. With 20 eligible participants, for example, 14 votes would be required. The Supreme Court dismissed challenges to that ruling on procedural grounds on Sept. 30; it did not thereby resolve every possible constitutional objection to the interpretation.

The trial resumes on Nov. 9, an official report said, when Duterte’s defense is expected to begin presenting its evidence, subject to the court’s procedural decisions.

The constitutional grounds are vital: Article XI, Section 2 of the 1987 Constitution includes culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust among the grounds for impeachment. Section 3(6) requires a two-third vote for conviction.

The Senate impeachment court is focused on the remaining unexplained wealth allegation, the strength of the defense’s response, and the Senate’s eventual vote – not simply on the number or seriousness of the original charges. The withdrawal of three articles has narrowed what the Senate must decide, while the revised voting rule has changed the arithmetic of conviction. Neither development, on its own, establishes the verdict.

The central issues to watch when the trial resumes are: Can the remaining allegations be proved to the Senate’s satisfaction, and can the prosecution secure the required votes?

However, an impeachment conviction in the Philippine Senate does not automatically carry a prison sentence. The constitutional penalties for impeachment are limited to immediate removal from office; and permanent disqualification from holding any public office in the Philippines.

Nonetheless, under the Philippine Constitution, an impeached official is still subject to criminal and civil prosecution in regular courts. If separate criminal cases (such as plunder, graft, corruption, or grave threats) are filed, tried, and proven in court, she can face standard imprisonment terms defined by Philippine penal laws (for example, plunder carries a penalty of life imprisonment up to death/Reclusion Perpetua). Capital punishment has been nullified.

Can there be a political compromise? Unlikely and lacks a constitutional path, say House prosecutors.

Meanwhile, family members and close allies have already been floated as direct substitutes If the Duterte faction seeks to retain its voter base and political influence.

Sens. Robin Padilla and Christopher “Bong” Go are also strong alternatives for her electoral base.

Another senator, Raffy Tulfo, consistently holds the third spot in early presidential preference polls (polling between 12% to 14%) and could absorb a segment of voters seeking a populist leader.

Sebastian “Baste” Duterte has been explicitly designated by Duterte party leadership (PDP) and political strategists as the primary alternative presidential candidate should Sara be disqualified. Padilla, meanwhile, is heavily favored by the Duterte patriarch, former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, now detained at Den Haag, to run as the administration's main populist opponent.

Senator Go, a staunch Duterte loyalist who regularly tops vice-presidential preference surveys, remains a highly viable alternative to anchor the political faction.

Former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo remains the strongest polling option for the liberal sectors, frequently placing second behind Sara Duterte in national preference surveys. Another possible presidential candidate is opposition Sen. Risa Hontiveros. She has publicly expressed interest in 2028 and gained traction through high-profile legislative investigations.

With the Duterte-Marcos UniTeam alliance in disarray, the incumbent administration forces are expected to field their own candidate, whose chances would strengthen in Sara Duterte's absence: A potential standard bearer for the administration’s security and policy platform is China’s nemesis, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, Jr.

Although focused on parliamentary leadership, the name of former House Speaker Martin Romualdez, a Marcos cousin, is consistently raised within administration circles regarding long-term succession strategies.

But Romualdez is a certain loser. He registers low public preference in early 2028 presidential preference in Pulse Asia and WR Numero polls - ranging from 1% to 6%. And he and must overcome the historical "Speaker's Curse" where no sitting or former House Speaker in post-EDSA Philippine politics has won the presidency.

Romualdez hails from the Visayas. Sara Duterte, on the other hand. has roots in Mindanao which could deliver solid and decisive votes for her presidential run.

Robredo, meanwhile, has ruled out a 2028 race – explicitly saying she intends to focus on local governance, and that she will seek a second term as the Naga mayor. She has publicly appealed for an end to "savior politics" and called on the opposition to build up alternative national leaders.

As typical politicians go, Robredo may renege on her promise. She will decide once a “popular public petition” calls for her to make a go.

Political parties like the Liberal Party continue to organize in hopes Robredo will change her mind. If she does choose to run, surveys suggest she has “a highly competitive chance”. Robredo consistently ranks second in major nationwide surveys (such as Pulse Asia and OCTA Research), holding a solid 26%-34% base of voter support.

In a hypothetical head-to-head match against Sara Duterte, polling from late 2026 shows Robredo narrowing the gap significantly to 43% vs 34% (with 22% undecided). Pulse Asia notes this 9-point margin keeps the race fluid and highly competitive.

In specific polling scenarios that exclude other prominent figures, Robredo immediately jumps to the lead (around 29%), probably indicating a potential to unify the fragmented anti-Duterte and anti-incumbent vote.

Rumors surfaced suggesting a "compromise deal" where Duterte would either resign or accept a conviction in exchange for dropping the perpetual disqualification clause, allowing her to run in the 2028 presidential election. However, House prosecution spokespersons and legal advisers firmly rejected this. They noted that the 1987 Philippine Constitution mandates both removal from office and permanent disqualification if an official is convicted, meaning there is no legal baseline for a halfway deal.

Overall, the impeachment trial acts as a decisive gateway for the 2028 elections. A full conviction bars Duterte from running, whereas a drawn-out trial that ends in acquittal or dismissal could turn her into a political martyr, boosting her frontrunner prospects.

But the main question: Is Sara Duterte fit for her job as vice president? If not, all the more she will mess up with the presidential post.

Prosecutors in Congress are examining Vice President Duterte's fitness to hold office amid an array of allegations of wrongdoing. The “confidential funds” issue has led critics and lawmakers to question transparency and adherence to budget laws. Critics, including legal figures and opposing lawmakers such as Atty. Lorna Kapunan, argue that public behavior, missed budget hearings, and lack of accountability regarding financial accounts undermine her qualification for the role. Observers have also criticized her tenure and capability as former Secretary of the Department of Education (DepEd) regarding fund use and learning metrics.

Independent critics and people's organizations do not think the vice president is fit for her job either, citing issues of accountability, transparency, and public conduct.

Sectoral groups and youth organizations (such as Bayan, Bayan Muna political party, and the National Union of Students of the Philippines), and watchdog critics condemn her on the unexcused or disallowed use of confidential funds.

Other critics view her announced 2028 presidential bid as a political shield and an evasion of accountability. Progressive and civil society groups argue that her behavior undermines national leadership standards. They label her performance weak, pointing to underutilized funds, unresolved classroom backlogs, and a failure to tackle systemic literacy crises.

Regardless of the outcome of her impeachment, recall that Sara Duterte won by a landslide vote in the 2022 vice presidential derby, garnering the highest share of votes among vice presidential candidates. The former mayor of Davao City and the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, registered over 61 percent of the total votes. Her closest competitor was Senator Kiko Pangilinan who received just 18 percent of the total votes.

So, is her conviction possibly the end of her political career and her family dynasty? #