THE GEOPOLITICS OF BALABAC

ISSUE ANALYSIS No. 11

Bobby M. Tuazon

Director for Policy Studies Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)

Director for Policy Studies

Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)

02 October 2026

The US persists in provoking a war with China by toughening its military bases in the Palawan Islands. Defense alliance with America is dragging the Philippines into such provocations – as it already does by hosting US war drills sharpening war capabilities against Washington’s existential enemy. Such acts endanger the Filipino people’s sovereign rights as well as Southeast Asian countries’ resounding voice for peace, stability, and non-interference. This is another issue that may yet metabolize into more and bigger frictions with China.

Recent weeks saw the accelerated infra-building of US military bases particularly in Balabac Islands, Palawan. The US-dictated Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites based in the province including the Antonio Bautista Airbase and Balabac Island, hogged the headlines generating public protests over the news.

Balabac, a picturesque, touristic group of islands, has transformed from a remote frontier into one of Southeast Asia's most consequential military hot spots, acting as a US forward outpost to counter China's presence in the South China Sea.

A second-class municipality, Balabac hosts 20 barangays peopled by 42,500. In all, the areas used for the EDCAs total more than 60,000 hectares – equal to the land area of the National Capital Region (NCR or Metro Manila).

Right now, the town is being aggressively upgraded into a US forward operating base featuring a 3-km military runway (Catagupan airfield), a naval pier, and beaching ramps. This allows the joint US-Philippines military alliance to rapidly deploy personnel, aircraft, surveillance systems, and heavy equipment.

The bases will escalate geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington in alliance with the administration of Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. The emerging dynamics stems primarily from bases’ role as a strategic southern node in the US–Philippine defense network under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

Although a Philippine military facility, Balabac grants rotational access to American troops for “joint drills, supply pre-positioning, and logistics”. The island overlooks the Balabac Strait, a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the South China Sea and the Sulu Sea. Infrastructure upgrades allow the US to quickly project power, deploy long-range fires like HIMARS, and deny hostile naval movements, i.e., Chinese, in the strait.

The bases sit roughly 140 nautical miles (260 kms) from Meiji Jiao or Mischief Reef, a heavily fortified Chinese artificial island in the Spratlys. A heightened allied presence on Balabac significantly enhances the monitoring of China’s Navy, Coast Guard, and maritime militia fleets, while acting as a strategic deterrent against further territorial incursions.

Along with three EDCA sites in northern Luzon near Taiwan, Balabac anchors the southern flank of an allied arc designed to counter Chinese power. Beijing-based think tanks like the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCPI) argue this effectively locks the region's primary shipping lanes and transitions the Philippines into a forward staging ground for the US military.

Nine EDCAs are operating in the Philippines today, with the first four forged with former President Benigno S. Aquino III and the five with Marcos Jr. The Philippine president’s rationale that the bases have no third-party target does not fly despite his public reassurances. Crystal-clear is that China is the object of attack.

The EDCAs are funded heavily by Washington; the planning, logistics, and engineering standards are spearheaded primarily by the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) and Pentagon. The entities are linked to the US military-industrial complex (MIC) – which plots the forever wars for profit and sits at the head-table of the “Deep State”.

The EDCA bases are regionalized based on the strategic geographical dispersion of rotating American forces across multiple areas of the Philippines, moving away from centralized major hubs like the former Clark and Subic bases.

The truth rings loud: By expanding the initial five locations to nine strategic military facilities, the US-Marcos defense alliance has established a distributed military network against China. The northern cluster (such as sites in Cagayan, which is opposed by its Governor, and Isabela) faces north toward the Taiwan Strait, while the western and southern clusters (such as Palawan) face the heavily contested South China Sea.

Balikatan 2026: A Country Turned Into a Site

The nine EDCA sites are only one part of the story. The Balikatan exercises (20 April to 8 May 2026) show US forces operating in and well beyond them, in provinces, airports, ports, and barangays across the archipelago. Some activities were tied to existing EDCA sites, while others took place in places never designated as such. In practice, US troops, missile systems, and equipment move from the far north to Mindanao as if the whole country were one rotational site.

Northern Luzon. On 4 May, US Army HIMARS crews conducted a counter-landing live-fire at the La Paz Sand Dunes in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. On 27 April, US Marines operated an anti-ship missile system in Batan, Batanes, the northernmost province, which faces the Taiwan Strait. Neither is an EDCA site, yet both hosted weapons systems that this paper ties to a war with China. In April, a HIMARS live-fire was also held in Laur, Nueva Ecija, during the related Salaknib exercise. Fort Magsaysay, an EDCA site, is in Nueva Ecija, though Laur is a separate municipality, which shows how activity spills beyond the formal site into the surrounding countryside.

Eastern Visayas. Activities were held on the new tarmac area inside Tacloban Airport, Leyte, a civilian airport in a city that is not an EDCA site. The Army said live-fire impacts would not occur within the city.

Mindanao. Before the exercise, forces rehearsed offloading equipment from prepositioning ships at the Port of Cagayan de Oro, the first time Mindanao ports were used for staging. Cagayan de Oro is already tied to an existing site through Lumbia Airport, so the port extends the American footprint there from the airfield to the sea.

Civic assistance projects. The presence extends down to the barangay level. US troops took part in construction and health projects, including:

• a schoolroom in Barangay Tinib, Casiguran, Aurora;

• a library in San Vicente, Sta. Ana, Cagayan, a municipality tied to existing EDCA sites in the province;

• a multipurpose hall in Barangay Tibulao, Carmen, Davao del Norte;

• a schoolhouse in Villa Reyes, San Narciso, Quezon;

• a schoolhouse in New Ibajay, El Nido, Palawan.

Taken together, these activities blur the line between "EDCA site" and "non-site." A formal list of nine locations understates a reality in which American troops rotate through airports, ports, dunes, and villages across the country, and in which any province can become a staging area or a target. Balabac is the next piece of this network, extending from Batanes in the north to Mindanao in the south.

Who commands Palawan and adjoining areas has geographical and tactical advantages: first, as a chokepoint control covering the Balabac Strait, Sulu Sea, and southern approaches to the South China Sea; second, it lies roughly 50 km from Sabah, Malaysia, impacting regional tactical surveillance – sending jitters to Malaysia and the rest of Southeast Asia. It also serves to enhance the southern defense anchor - extending the allied operational network to the southern edge of the first island chain.

As argued by the Heartland and Rimland Theories: Dominating Eurasia (the massive landmass that connects Russia, China and North Korea) holds the key to global hegemony. Who controls the Heartland controls Europe – and the world.

From a military perspective, this regionalization serves two main goals: it optimizes Washington’s "integrated deterrence" against Chinese maritime aggression as claimed by both Manila and Washington, and it creates a dispersed architecture that makes allied assets harder to target while accelerating logistical response times during a crisis.

Arguably, Marcos Jr. is protecting America’s regional power vis-à-vis major powers in Asia Pacific such as China and in the Korean Peninsula specifically the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea).

However, the presence of EDCAs provokes China to prepare for war as it has been since the US’ encirclement and containment strategy against the mainland by way of the South China Sea; as well as Obama’s Pivot to Asia paradigm. Marcos Jr. is antagonizing UN officials. The UN Charter heavily prioritizes the peaceful settlement of disputes (Article 2(3)) and prohibits the threat or use of force (Article 2(4)).

The Chinese government has repeatedly criticized the EDCA base expansions, warning that granting the U.S. greater military access drags the Philippines into "geopolitical strife" and endangers regional stability. The forward-positioned sites serve as a vital link in the US first island chain strategy, posing a direct challenge to Beijing's operational reach and maritime claims in the region.

The country’s local governments and communities are alarmed. Cagayan Gov. Manuel Mamba openly opposed hosting EDCA sites. Other local leaders expressed severe anxiety that their provinces would become immediate "magnets" or primary targets for Chinese missile strikes in a conflict between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan.

The truth is bold and clear: Today, the decline of American unipolar dominance and the rise of a multipolar global system mark a historic shift from a single superpower to a decentralized distribution of power among China, Russia, India, and regional blocs. In the context of the realist balance of power, the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity is ratcheted by intense economic and security competition, as well as technological, cyber, and economic competition, increasing the risk of friction.

It is already happening US and China power rivalry in the South China Sea; US-NATO war on Russia with Ukraine as proxy, the US-Israel war on Iran where Tehran is backed by China and Russia, and other regional flashpoints.

In many forms, the Global South bloc is winning, however. The economic bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) account for 40% of global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, compared to 28% for the G7/Western-aligned economies.

Except the Philippines, nations across the Global South are increasingly pursuing independent foreign policies rather than aligning automatically with US or Western directives. Will this Third World country be tied to the hips of Uncle Sam forever? #