Selling Mrs. Arroyo
By Joanne Lara*
The Filipinos’ nine-year ordeal under the Arroyo administration would soon draw to a halt on June 30 when Benigno Simeon ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III will be proclaimed 15th President of the Republic of the Philippines.
We could kiss President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo goodbye, finally. But then again, it might be still too early to heave a sigh of relief. What seems to be ending just might turn out to be the start of a grander plan.
Mrs. Arroyo filed her certificate of candidacy to run as for the 2nd Congressional district of Pampanga in the latter part of 2009[1]. After the May 10 synchronized polls, she was proclaimed winner of the congressional race in her district.[2]
Arroyo’s gaining a legislative seat fans fears that her oft-repeated for charter change might be resurrected after all elective posts in Congress have been filled in. Many assume that the change would be a shift to a parliamentary form of government, one in which the ministers of the executive branch are drawn from the legislative branch.[3]
Translating this to the Philippine setting, the Prime Minister would be drawn from Congress and that person might as well be Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, if ever she gets elected as House Speaker.
According to Article VI Section 16 of the 1987 Constitution, the House of Representatives must elect its Speaker by a majority vote of all its respective members. That means out of the 250++ seats allotted in Congress, Mrs. Arroyo must have the loyalty and support of at least 130 fellow House Representatives if she were to bag this prized plum in the House.
Albay Representative Edcel Lagman had once said the magic number would be 144, though,[4] while Camarines Sur Representative Luis Villafuerte had said it is 170.[5] If their contentions were true, Mrs. Arroyo would have a harder time.
To date, there are at least 109 Congressional seats controlled by Mrs. Arroyo’s Lakas Kampi CMD party.[6] Add to them the 22 party list seats reportedly clinched by pro-Arroyo groups. Broken down, these are 3 seats by Ako Bicol; 2 seats each by Coop Natcco , Abono, A Teacher; and 1 seat each by Butil, Yacap, APEC, Kasangga, ANAD, Ang Galing Pinoy, Agbiag, TUCP, Kapatiran ng mga Nakulong na Walang Sala, 1-Utak, ALIF, AVE, and Aangat Tayo.[7]
With these numbers, the birthing of future House Speaker Gloria Arroyo now seems possible.
Still, it might be dangerous to conclude hastily, as other factors must be considered. Mrs. Arroyos’ own party, Lakas, weathered several defections during the national campaign period. Not that this is novel – the country’s party system is noted for incessant party switching and outright turncoatism. It is almost inevitable that this scenario will be replicated within the next few weeks after the inauguration of the new president.
Albay Representative Lagman, himself a known Arroyo ally, had once stated that 10 – 15% of the Lakas House Members could switch to the other party to prevent the withholding of the pork barrel.[8] Also, there is a perceived LP-NP-NPC alliance a-borning, a factor that could later serve to hinder the proclamation of Mrs. Arroyo as the House Speaker of the 15th Congress.[9]
There remains a basic question on whether the long-dreaded charter change could still push through now that Mrs. Arroyo’s grand plan has become apparent to everyone. Seeing the extreme side of it, this dilemma could ignite a civil war, if not an outright revolution. Grassroots movements have made it known that they could not let Arroyo control the country once again.
Unless Mrs. Arroyo could buy out all of the House Representatives of Lakas Kampi-CMD and prevent the emerging LP-NP-NPC merger, her bid for House Speakership moves on turbulent waters. By some hint of luck that she becomes House Speaker, she still needs a strong force to push for charter change and seduce the grassroots enough to make herself the Prime Minister.
Everyone hopes that with the transfer of the country’s reins of power to another player, Mrs. Arroyo will become far less marketable than before and her power antics will not be bought by the other players in the political mainstream. (CenPEG.org)
(*Joanne Lara, a junior political science student of the University of the Philippines in Manila, contributed this article as a summer practicum student under CenPEG’s Volunteers Integration Program or VIP in the summer of 2010. Joanne is now enrolled as a senior.)
[1] Arroyo files COC for congressional bid, abs cbn news, December 1, 2009, Retrieved from
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/12/01/09/arroyo-files-coc-congressional-bid[2] Arroyo wins Congress seat in Pampanga, GMA news, Retrieved from
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/190811/arroyo-wins-congress-seat-in-pampanga[3] Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_system
[4] Lakas House bloc consolidating, may 19, 2010, retrieved from http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=576508&publicationSubCategoryId=63
[5] It's GMA, Belmonte for House Speakership in 15th Congress retrieved from
http://balita.ph/2010/05/18/its-gma-belmonte-for-house-speakership-in-15th-congress/[6] Lakas House bloc consolidating, may 19, 2010, retrieved from http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=576508&publicationSubCategoryId=63
[7] Based on CenPEG research
[8] Lakas House bloc consolidating, May 19, 2010, retrieved from http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=576508&publicationSubCategoryId=63
[9] It's GMA, Belmonte for House Speakership in 15th Congress retrieved from
http://balita.ph/2010/05/18/its-gma-belmonte-for-house-speakership-in-15th-congress/