ISSUE
ANALYSIS No. 5
March 5, 2008
Series
of 2008
The
“critical mass” that can lead to the forced resignation
of Gloria M. Arroyo can only rise from the spectrum of diverse groups
and personalities agreeing who or what will replace the widely-discredited
president.
Options
and scenarios
The
“critical mass” that can lead to the forced resignation
of Gloria M. Arroyo can only rise from the spectrum of diverse groups
and personalities agreeing who or what will replace the widely-discredited
president.
Most
of the 80,000 people who converged at the interfaith prayer-rally
in Ayala, Makati City on February 29 supported the call for Arroyo’s
resignation or removal. The call was echoed by tens of thousands
other rallyers who held similar protest actions during the same
week in several cities throughout the country as well as in Hong
Kong, the United States, Europe, and other countries.
The
Arroyo regime is in red alert - in panic mode, if you will - since
the February 29 rallies. The events showed the confluence of major
advocacy groups, opinion leaders, and a big number of students in
just two weeks following whistleblower Rodolfo “Jun”
Lozada’s corruption exposes’ with their resounding call
for the president’s resignation.[1]
It was like the thunderbolt that sent waves of masses taking to
Edsa 1 and Edsa 2 – a political combustion that could electrify
more mass actions increasing in frequency and in bigger numbers
until the final day of reckoning for Gloria M. Arroyo.
Unprecedented
In
many respects, the resign call is giving birth to a progressive
plank even among the moderate groups as well as interfaith, lawyers,
and youth sectors that see Arroyo’s resignation or removal
as a step toward a deep-going reform in government and in the state’s
political institutions. Outside the militant groups, this nuance
was never seen before in Edsa 1 and Edsa 2. Seven years of the Arroyo
regime have exposed alarmingly the fragility of the country’s
institutions on account of the subversion of the electoral system
to prolong the president’s rule, the manipulation of the legislature
through bribery and tyranny of numbers to block impeachment moves,
and military supremacy over the justice system particularly on so-called
national security cases. What are claimed to be constitutional processes
have succumbed to the use of force, threats, and corruption through
bribery as a means of protecting the questionable rule of Arroyo.
Thus,
the ground for starting a movement for democratic reform in governance
by the people is already present.[2]
Having said that, in the short-term, what should be the post-Arroyo
replacement? This crucial question remains unresolved among the
various and eclectic anti-Arroyo forces at this point. Almost everyone
agrees however that some unity should be reached on this matter
if the momentum for the resignation of Arroyo is to be sustained
and pushed to its desired conclusion. There are various scenarios
being floated:
Constitutional
succession, with Vice President Noli de Castro assuming
the presidency. This option is being pushed by the so-called “La
Salle 60” which is composed of the Hyatt 10++ - the resigned
members of the Arroyo cabinet – and other past cabinet members.
Except
for its constitutionality, this option has drawn no serious appeal
not only because De Castro is a lame duck but also because with
Noli – an Arroyo protégé - at the helm it will
not address the immediate demand to hold the beleaguered president
accountable for the various charges of fraud, corruption, and killings
thrown against her. Besides, whether De Castro can lead the initiative
to reform the government system let alone its electoral process
– an increasing demand from the parliament of the streets
– also remains a question.
A
variation to this option, which De Castro is expected to refuse,
is for the provisional president to call for snap presidential elections
even before 2010. The unanimous requisite for holding another election
is the revamp of Comelec to ensure its independence and instituting
effective mechanisms to safeguard the right to vote.
Revolutionary
transition
A
revolutionary transition government, which has been endorsed
by groups aligned with a former university president and some military
rebels. This can be the result of a successful ouster move against
the seating president with the possibility that it will be backed
by military elements. This option, which can result in a civilian-military
junta, has no mass appeal as proven in recent opinion surveys, and
does not sit well with both moderate and other militant forces in
the anti-Arroyo regime struggle. It will face stiff resistance from
Congress once the transition government moves to abolish it.
An
extreme version of this option, which a few individuals seem to
be entertaining, amounts to a virtual anarchy – anything to
replace the regime “including chaos and revolution.”
What kind of “revolution” they mean is quite murky at
this point.
A
citizens’ transition council to be headed
by a Supreme Court justice. This imminent citizens-led council can
also be the result of Arroyo’s forced resignation. The emergence
of this caretaker body is essentially a political act done under
an extraordinary situation – reminiscent of the revolutionary
transition in 1986 under Corazon Aquino – with enough powers
while retaining the element of constitutional succession. The trailblazing
transition council will be composed of – and staffed by -
representatives of people’s organizations, NGOs, and sectors
that are struggling for the resignation or removal of Arroyo and
are united by a concrete program of genuine social, economic, and
political reform. These are the groups and sectors generally left
out in Edsa 1 and Edsa 2 where the victories of people’s struggles
were hijacked by members of the elite and ruled the country in the
old tyrannical and corrupt ways that people power had precisely
struggled to demolish.
The
citizens’ transition council will address the public clamor
for a non-traditional, pro-people political leadership that may
likely draw support from other key players such as influential members
of the interfaith, business, and the military. For this option to
become feasible, however, the pressure that will force Arroyo to
resign should be strong and insurmountable in a supreme act of sovereign
power by the people allowing them - extra-constitutionally - to
entrust powers to this caretaker body.
The
short-term and minimum agenda of the proposed citizens’ council
is to initiate immediate reforms starting with the electoral system
to ensure a clean and democratic election in 2010. So long as this
is made clear – alongside with the fact that the council will
exist only for a specific duration – then it will likely draw
the support not only from the disparate political forces arrayed
against the regime but also significant segments of the broad public.
Elite and traditional politicians should admit that they have already
lost their self-proclaimed right to dominate leadership while the
people have begun to realize they should assert their sovereign
power if comprehensive reform in governance is to be instituted.
Status
quo
Still
others – some presidentiables included - would rather see
Arroyo finishing her term until June 2010 or roughly for about 800
more days. If this is ruled out, presidential aspirants would scream
to high heavens on the day Noli de Castro is sworn into office in
place of Arroyo because with government resources at his disposal
that would ensure his election in 2010. Some political readers point
out, however, that if Arroyo is allowed to stay in office until
2010, what will prevent her from hanging unto power beyond that?
As
far as anti-Arroyo forces are concerned, either of these two scenarios
would plunge the country deeper into a political turmoil. Better
have a minor incision now than be forced to take a major surgery
within the next two years.
The
search for a political alternative is a communal work in progress.
Its shape and configuration will evolve in the process of widening
and increasing the momentum for replacing a widely-perceived corrupt
and most despicable regime. But the answer for an alternative leadership
must soon be cobbled together by all democratic and patriotic forces
as it will serve as the bridge toward building the “critical
mass” needed to put an end to a regime of greed and fear.
The arduous and contentious process of political reconstruction
should begin with the first step.
_______________________________________________________
[1]
See CenPEG Issue Analysis No. 04, “People Power,” February
26, 2008 at www.cenpeg.org
[2]
This should be distinguished from the dynamics of the Marxist-led
people’s democratic revolution which seeks the restructuring
of the society with a socialist perspective, and with the foundations
of a revolutionary government already underway in the rural countryside.
Other ideological groups envisage peaceful reform using the parliamentary
mode while others are pushing for urban insurrections.
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