Issue
Analysis No. 26
December 2, 2006
People
simply do not buy repeated hectoring by the President and her allies
that charter change will bring the country to paradise and news
that she is sick generates further expectations for her to step
down. The survival options for the besieged President have simply
depreciated.
Desperate
Times
To
Gloria M. Arroyo, the objective is quite clear: Con-ass is not just
simply amending the Constitution but is also about making sure that
she completes her term as president in 2010, or even beyond. Con-ass
– along with other repressive decrees and the military - is
her survival kit. She knows that if everything else fails, congressional
elections will push through in May next year with the anti-Gloria
traditional opposition – subject to favorable conditions –
likely to gain more seats in Congress leading possibly to a third
impeachment against the President. If that materializes, the chances
of removing the President from power will be quite high.
In
effect, the next polls will not just be an electoral exercise. It
will essentially become a crucial political struggle for removing
the president. The vote that will go to the opposition – for
that matter, to the anti-Gloria party-list groups – will seal
the fate of the presidency. Again, however, this under the condition
that in the election the traditional opposition can act as one and
is able to match government resources and the use of fraud that
will be unleashed to pre-empt an administration debacle.
Mrs.
Arroyo, since her constitutionally-infirmed election in 2004, has
been fighting through thick and thin for political survival hanging
for dear life for continued support by her allies in Congress, the
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the U.S. government. She
has used the iron hand – escalating the political persecution
of the Left allegedly through extra-judicial executions and threatening
to arrest and file rebellion charges against alleged coup plotters
and opposition leaders. She had planned to declare martial law early
this year but imposed an emergency rule instead.
She
entered into a deal with former President Fidel V. Ramos and House
Speaker Jose de Venecia to summon her power and resources toward
a constitutional change. Under the pretext of shifting to a unicameral
parliamentary government, charter change allow the pro-administration
legislative majority to extend their term of office and control
the new legislature thus ensuring her stay in office as chief of
state – all without going through the May 2007 elections.
When the Supreme Court (SC) shot down the administration-concocted
“people’s initiative” to amend the charter, she
backed the option of turning Congress into a constituent assembly
for the same self-serving political goal. The fast-track formula
includes pressuring senators to collaborate with the administration-dominated
House to vote as “one Congress” for the Con-ass and
the appointment of Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, an Arroyo ally,
as the new chief justice of the high court. But time is running
out.
In
her desperate effort to stay in power despite an overwhelming public
sentiment for her to quit the presidency, Mrs. Arroyo has courted
more enemies, lost valuable allies and created more dilemmas. She
has also drawn international condemnation for the human rights violations
committed by her
security forces and, for the same reason, has risked losing the
confidence of foreign investors.
Cabinet
infighting
All
these and the crisis of corruption, cabinet infighting, increased
poverty and widespread hunger among the poor have caused her popularity
rating to dip further, based on the latest surveys. People simply
do not buy repeated hectoring by the President and her allies that
charter change will bring the country to paradise and news that
she is sick generates further expectations for her to step down.
Even the influential Makati business community representing the
country’s major corporations has spoken against the Con-ass
warning of its being divisive. The survival options for the besieged
President have simply depreciated.
It
would take more than political clout and massive resources to ram
through Con-ass. Most members of the Senate will reject it and besides
most of them and the rest of the anti-Gloria opposition are geared
for the election now that, if the surveys are credible, they appear
to have better chances of winning. It would be an act of brazenness
for Mrs. Arroyo to install Defensor-Santiago as the new SC chief
justice by Dec. 7 to ensure another court vote this time in favor
of Con-ass. That – assuming majority of the justices will
support this obviously politically-motivated trick - would incense
the public even more, galvanize an alliance between the opposition
and progressive groups and spark more political turmoil.
The
President may then create an artificial scenario – such as
“terrorist bombings” - that would justify the declaration
of martial law. The blueprint of installing a civilian-military
junta has been pre-determined with the presence of 29 former generals
and senior military and police officials holding key cabinet positions.
But a martial law option is a political suicide. It will only precipitate
a massive political uprising and hasten the armed revolution.
Considering
the odds, will Mrs. Arroyo’s senior political handlers –
Ramos and De Venecia - tell her to form instead a coalition government
with the opposition and former allies? Will she strike a compromise
that, granting an opposition victory in the 2007 elections, prevent
her from being impeached? What other alternatives and trade-offs
are left to save her neck?
Time
is not on her side.
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