THE
SIMULTANEOUS unfolding of the U.S. presidential campaign and unraveling
of the financial markets presents one of those occasions where the
political and economic systems starkly reveal their nature.
THE
SIMULTANEOUS unfolding of the U.S. presidential campaign and unraveling
of the financial markets presents one of those occasions where the
political and economic systems starkly reveal their nature.
Passion
about the campaign may not be universally shared but almost everybody
can feel the anxiety from the foreclosure of a million homes, and
concerns about jobs, savings and healthcare at risk.
The
initial Bush proposals to deal with the crisis so reeked of totalitarianism
that they were quickly modified. Under intense lobbyist pressure,
they were reshaped as "a clear win for the largest institutions
in the system. . . a way of dumping assets without having to fail
or close", as described by James Rickards, who negotiated the
federal bailout for the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management
in 1998, reminding us that we are treading familiar turf.
The
immediate origins of the current meltdown lie in the collapse of
the housing bubble supervised by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan,
which sustained the struggling economy through the Bush years by
debt-based consumer spending along with borrowing from abroad. But
the roots are deeper. In part they lie in the triumph of financial
liberalization in the past 30 years - that is, freeing the markets
as much as possible from government regulation.
These
steps predictably increased the frequency and depth of severe reversals,
which now threaten to bring about the worst crisis since the Great
Depression.
Also
predictably, the narrow sectors that reaped enormous profits from
liberalisation are calling for massive state intervention to rescue
collapsing financial institutions. Such interventionism is a regular
feature of state capitalism, though the scale today is unusual.
A study by international economists Winfried Ruigrok and Rob van
Tulder 15 years ago found that at least 20 companies in the Fortune
100 would not have survived if they had not been saved by their
respective governments, and that many of the rest gained substantially
by demanding that governments "socialize their losses,"
as in today's taxpayer-financed bailout. Such government intervention
"has been the rule rather than the exception over the past
two centuries", they conclude.
In a
functioning democratic society, a political campaign would address
such fundamental issues, looking into root causes and cures, and
proposing the means by which people suffering the consequences can
take effective control.
The
financial market "underprices risk" and is "systematically
inefficient", as economists John Eatwell and Lance Taylor wrote
a decade ago, warning of the extreme dangers of financial liberalisation
and reviewing the substantial costs already incurred - and proposing
solutions, which have been ignored. One factor is failure to calculate
the costs to those who do not participate in transactions. These
"externalities" can be huge. Ignoring systemic risk leads
to more risk-taking than would take place in an efficient economy,
even by the narrowest measures.
The
task of financial institutions is to take risks and, if well-managed,
to ensure that potential losses to themselves will be covered. The
emphasis is on "to themselves". Under state capitalist
rules, it is not their business to consider the cost to others -
the "externalities" of decent survival - if their practices
lead to financial crisis, as they regularly do.
Financial
liberalization has effects well beyond the economy. It has long
been understood that it is a powerful weapon against democracy.
Free capital movement creates what some have called a "virtual
parliament" of investors and lenders, who closely monitor government
programs and "vote" against them if they are considered
irrational: for the benefit of people, rather than concentrated
private power.
Investors
and lenders can "vote" by capital flight, attacks on currencies
and other devices offered by financial liberalization. That is one
reason why the Bretton Woods system established by the United States
and Britain after the second World War instituted capital controls
and regulated currencies.*
The
Great Depression and the war had aroused powerful radical democratic
currents, ranging from the anti-fascist resistance to working class
organization. These pressures made it necessary to permit social
democratic policies. The Bretton Woods system was designed in part
to create a space for government action responding to public will
- for some measure of democracy.
John
Maynard Keynes, the British negotiator, considered the most important
achievement of Bretton Woods to be the establishment of the right
of governments to restrict capital movement. In dramatic contrast,
in the neoliberal phase after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods
system in the 1970s, the US treasury now regards free capital mobility
as a "fundamental right", unlike such alleged "rights"
as those guaranteed by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:
health, education, decent employment, security and other rights
that the Reagan and Bush administrations have dismissed as "letters
to Santa Claus", "preposterous", mere "myths".
In earlier
years, the public had not been much of a problem. The reasons are
reviewed by Barry Eichengreen in his standard scholarly history
of the international monetary system. He explains that in the 19th
century, governments had not yet been "politicized by universal
male suffrage and the rise of trade unionism and parliamentary labor
parties". Therefore, the severe costs imposed by the virtual
parliament could be transferred to the general population.
But
with the radicalization of the general public during the Great Depression
and the anti-fascist war, that luxury was no longer available to
private power and wealth. Hence in the Bretton Woods system, "limits
on capital mobility substituted for limits on democracy as a source
of insulation from market pressures".
The
obvious corollary is that after the dismantling of the postwar system,
democracy is restricted. It has therefore become necessary to control
and marginalize the public in some fashion, processes particularly
evident in the more business-run societies like the United States.
The management of electoral extravaganzas by the public relations
industry is one illustration.
"Politics
is the shadow cast on society by big business," concluded America's
leading 20th century social philosopher John Dewey, and will remain
so as long as power resides in "business for private profit
through private control of banking, land, industry, reinforced by
command of the press, press agents and other means of publicity
and propaganda".
The
United States effectively has a one-party system, the business party,
with two factions, Republicans and Democrats. There are differences
between them. In his study Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy
of the New Gilded Age, Larry Bartels shows that during the past
six decades "real incomes of middle-class families have grown
twice as fast under Democrats as they have under Republicans, while
the real incomes of working-poor families have grown six times as
fast under Democrats as they have under Republicans".
Differences
can be detected in the current election as well. Voters should consider
them, but without illusions about the political parties, and with
the recognition that consistently over the centuries, progressive
legislation and social welfare have been won by popular struggles,
not gifts from above.
Those
struggles follow a cycle of success and setback. They must be waged
every day, not just once every four years, always with the goal
of creating a genuinely responsive democratic society, from the
voting booth to the workplace.
* The
Bretton Woods system of global financial management was created
by 730 delegates from all 44 Allied Second World War nations who
attended a UN-hosted Monetary and Financial Conference at the Mount
Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods in New Hampshire in 1944. Bretton
Woods, which collapsed in 1971, was the system of rules, institutions,
and procedures that regulated the international monetary system,
under which were set up the International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development (IBRD) (now one of five institutions in the World
Bank Group) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which came
into effect in 1945.
The
chief feature of Bretton Woods was an obligation for each country
to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate of
its currency within a fixed value.
The system collapsed when the US suspended convertibility from dollars
to gold. This created the unique situation whereby the US dollar
became the "reserve currency" for the other countries
within Bretton Woods. This article appeared first in The Irish Times